Jim Cramer Blog

With the latest figures from the jobs report representing a sturdier than thought economy and a “just right” wage number, a March rate cut now appears less likely [fed funds futures @ 36%]. One place investors are sure not to get the coveted policy shift is in Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. It’s the last time in 2006 that economic watchdogs will be able to gather clues as how the Fed sees the economy. A statement that offers up the opinion of inflation remaining elevated or still a concern, but an expectation for lower prices as the manufactured slow down is proceeding as planned, is thought somewhat likely. If Tuesday’s FOMC doesn’t offer clarity, one way or the other, investors will have Friday’s CPI data to look forward too. That report will offer evidence as to whether inflation at the consumer level has afforded the spending public the opportunity to whip out the Capital One (COF), MasterCard (MA) or plunk down some cash worth less and less these days as evidenced by the deteriorating US Dollar. In general and sans the Fed offering a fresh message, the CPI report will have its work cut out for it. The last month has been full of mixed economic signals as to how strong or weak the manufactured slowdown is, so extra importance might be seen as being attached to that data. Black Gold (USO) pushed lower by -2.67% this past week, easing some concerns over pressure at the pump and heating up those McMansions. However, the commodity and its derivative contracts are just off two-month highs. As such, technical strength could quickly lead to fresh angst for investors. Potential catalysts and the focus of many traders include OPEC’s Thursday meeting [production cut expected], further escalations of civil unrest in Nigeria and any changes, for better or worse, for winter weather forecasts. This week offers up a light schedule of earnings names, but in the other ‘profit-engine’ of the financial sector, the Broker / Dealer ($XBD) group is well-represented. Goldie (GS), Lehman (LEH) and Bear (BSC) all report during the five day period. As a group that’s synonymous with being a market bellwether and those names all near All-Time-Highs, traders can expect those stocks to be in play this week. Monday Economic: Wholesale Inventories (.6%)Earnings: Analogic (ALOG), Verint (VRNT), Spartech (SEH), Source Interlink (SORC)TuesdayEconomic: Treasury Balance (-63.5B), FOMC Policy StatementEarnings: Goldman (GS), Best Buy (BBY), Martek (MATK), Cooper (COO), ADC Telco (ADCT)Wednesday Economic: Retail Sales / ex Auto (.2%, .3%), Business Inv (.5%), Weekly CrudeEarnings: Zoltek (ZOLT) ThursdayEconomic: Import / Export Prices, Weekly Claims (320K)Earnings: Beacon Roof (BECN), Bear Stearns (BSC), Lehman (LEH), Pier 1 (PIR), Winnebago (WGO) Adobe (ADBE), Quiksilver (ZQK), Tektronix (TEK), VistaCare (VSTA)Friday: Economic: CPI & Core (.2%, .2%), Empire State (20), Ind Prod & Cap Util (.2%, 82.2%)Earnings: N/A

Labels: ADBE, ALOG, BBY, BECN, BSC, COF, COO, GS, LEH, MA, MATK, PIR, SEH, TEK, USO, VRNT, VSTA, WGO, ZOLT, ZQK