Jim Cramer Blog

The PowerShares DB Agriculure Fund, DBA (AMEX:DBA), lost more than 3% on Friday, responding to dramatically overbought conditions that developed on Wednesday.
Perennial traders' favorite, the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF, DUG (AMEX:DUG) was among the better performing of the widely-traded funds, gaining more than 3% and moving back up toward its recent highs.
Reflecting continued weakness overseas in Latin America, the iShares Brazil Index Fund, EWZ (NYSE:EWZ) resumed its descent on Friday, losing nearly 3% and closing at new lows. The iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index ETF, ILF (NYSE:ILF) was also lower, losing nearly 2%.
The PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF, QQQQ (NasdaqGM:QQQQ), continues its progress above the 200-day moving average, closing above that level for the sixth consecutive time. The QQQQ has not had this many consecutive closes above the 200-day moving average since late May.
The move lower in gold has contributed toward more selling in the Select Gold Shares SPDRs, GLD (NYSE:GLD), which were down more than 2% on the day en route to lower lows for the month.
Trading below their 200-day moving average and once again overbought, the Select Technology Sector SPDRs, XLK (AMEX:XLK), were higher again on Friday.

Labels: DBA, DUG, EWZ, GLD, Hot Stocks, ILF, QQQQ, XLK

Here are 7 trading ideas for today. This list comes directly from the TradingMarkets Stock Indicators page and is based upon our latest quantitative research.
Bullish
Laps Down 5% or More: These are stocks that lap down by 5% or more and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that lap down by more than 5% have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
ICO Incorporated (NasdaqGM:ICOC - News). ICOC's PowerRating (for Traders) is 8.
5+ Consecutive Down Days: These are stocks that have closed down for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that close down for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Metalico (NYSE:MEA - News) & Dentsply International (NasdaqGS:XRAY - News). MEA's PowerRating (for Traders) is 8, and XRAY's PowerRating (for Traders) is 7.
5+ Consecutive Lower Lows: These are stocks that have made a lower low for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that make lower lows for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
L-3 Communications (NYSE:LLL - News). LLL's PowerRating (for Traders) is 7.
2-Period RSI Below 2: These are stocks that have a 2-period RSI reading below 2 and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving with a 2-period RSI reading below 2 have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Andrew Corporation (NasdaqGS:ANDW - News). ANDW's PowerRating (for Traders) is 6.
Stocks Down 10% or More: These are stocks that have lost 10% or more over the past five days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that have lost 10% or more over the past five days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE:EWZ - News). EWZ's PowerRating (for Traders) is 7.
Bearish
Stocks Up 10% or More: These are stocks that have gained 10% or more over the past five days and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that have gained 10% or more over the past five days have shown negative returns, on average, 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
LJ International (NasdaqGM:JADE - News). JADE's PowerRating (for Traders) is 3.
Published By TradingMarkets.com

Labels: ANDW, EWZ, Hot Stocks, ICOC, JADE, LLL, MEA, XRAY

The Fed's 50 point cut on Tuesday sparked the stock market, and CNBC's "Fast Money" discussed why the bulls are running, and what it means for financial stocks:
Najarian: Tuesday's actions all about the financials. Financial Select Sector SPDR, ton of volume in call options.
Macke: Can't be short financials now.
Adami: continues to like financials; Lehman Brothers(LEH), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS)
All Clear on Wall Street? CNBC's Charlie Gasparino discussed whether brokers are a buy now. Gasparino feels confident about most of the brokers except Bear Stearns (BSC)--lease diversed and tied to credit markets.
OIL: Crude oil hit another record touching $81.51 and gold traded to $735, its highest level in 27 years. Author Dennis Gartman: Shocked by feds decision. Thinks stock market will continue to climb.
Housing Market: Adami: housing stocks are back for a trade. He likes Hovanian, (HOV), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Pulte Homes (PHM)
Finerman: Still likes Home Depot(HD), which she owns for its cheap valuation.
Word on the Street: Cummings (CMI) and Caterpillar (CAT) exploded higher on the Fed cut. Najarian: Thinks CAT has much more upside to come.
Global: China and Brazil's markets soared on the rate cuts. Tim Seymour, Principal at Red Star Asset Management, joined the crew to discuss the emerging markets. Seymour likes gold and Brazil ETF (EWZ)
Face 2 Face:
Viewer writes: "What happened to the recommendation to get out of gold if the Fed dropped its rates?" Adami reiterated his bearish stance on gold.
Viewer writes: "Should I sell my October $195 call options on Goldman Sachs (GS) now or is there still more upside?" Najarian- feels strong about GS, but you should take half the position off before earnings.
Viewer writes: "What is your outlook for Tiffany's (TIF) as the holiday season approaches?" Macke is positive about Tiffany's and Blue Nile (NILE)
Pops & Drops:
Pops: Macke-Caterpillar (CAT), Finerman-Target (TGT), Adami-Alcoa (AA)-could be bought out by Najarian's pick-Billiton (BHP), and Finerman-Wendy's (WEN)
Drops: Najarian-E*Trade (ETFC), Macke-Hovnanian(DOG), Adami-Boeing(BA)
Final Trade:
Macke- Macy's (M)
Finerman- Altria (MO)
Adami- Nucor (NUE)
Najarian- Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO)

Labels: BHP, BSC, CAT, CMI, CNBC, ETFC, EWZ, Fast Money, GS, HD, HOV, LEH, MS, NILE, PHM, SPDR, TGT, TIF, TOL, WEN

When it came to Brazil, it used to be the girl from Ipanema that had people saying "Ahhh." Lately, though, it's the country's hot economy that brings on sighs of satisfaction.
Right now, iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (AMEX:EWZ - News) reflects that. The exchange traded fund, which tracks the performance of the Morgan Stanley Capital International Brazilian Market Index, hit its all-time high of 52.28 on Monday. The 44-company fund has jumped 50% since January 2006.
Last week it was announced that iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund options will open with position limits of 25,000,000 shares. The options will trade on the March expiration cycle. The specialist will be Susquehanna Investment Group.
South America's largest market has remained mostly bullish from late September through the first quarter of 2007. The country's debt has fallen. And GDP is up.
China Play
In addition to a surge in Brazilian energy and industrial markets -- Brazil exports tons of raw materials to building-hungry China -- the Ibovespa (an index of about 50 companies that trades on Brazil's Sao Paulo exchange) hit new highs 29 times in 2006, celebrating its most recent all-time high Dec. 27.
What's fueling the growth?
Partial credit can go to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Since his election in 2003, Lula has helped boost the country's currency by 69%, begun a highly disciplined monetary policy and helped shift a trade deficit into a massive surplus.
But Brazil's current symbiosis with China also plays a hefty part. For most of 2006, Brazil was China's largest trade partner in Latin America.
It's a trend that shows no signs of slowing. When Brazilian sugar cane giant Farias announced last month that it will build new ethanol mills, Chinese investors were major backers.
Oil Prices
If energy needs remain stable, Brazil's future looks just as bright. Oil prices have been rising steadily as Middle East tensions rise, and Brazilian energy producers stand to profit strongly.
The fund's top holding, Rio de Janeiro-based Petrobras (NYSE:PBR - News), is reaping the benefits of the geopolitical situation. The company saw earnings per share climb 20% last year, from $9.13 in 2005 to $10.97 in 2006. In the last month, its low IBD Relative Strength rating jumped from a 46 to a 69.
Brazilian mining powerhouse Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE:RIO - News) has two share classes represented in the fund's top five holdings. The largest mining company in the Western Hemisphere suffered when the bottom fell out of the China market in February, but the stock hit a new all-time high of 40.49 on Monday.
Rio Doce's earnings per share jumped 27% for the year, from $1.92 in 2005 to $2.44 in 2006.
Published by Joanne Von Alroth at Investor's Business Daily

Labels: Brazil, EWZ, PBR, RIO