Jim Cramer Blog

The economy nearly stalled in the fourth quarter with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, capping its worst year since 2002.
The Commerce Department's report on the gross domestic product, released Wednesday, showed an economy that had deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown.

For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years.

Labels: economic data, Economy, GDP, Recession

Here are 7 trading ideas for today. These lists come directly from the TradingMarkets Stock Indicators page and are based upon our latest quantitative research.
Bullish
5+ Consecutive Down Days: These are stocks that have closed down for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that close down for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Guess (NYSE:GES - News). GES's PowerRating (for Traders) is 7.
5+ Consecutive Lower Lows: These are stocks that have made a lower low for five or more consecutive days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that make lower lows for five or more days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Riverbed Technologies (NasdaqGM:RVBD - News). RVBD's PowerRating (for Traders) is 7.
2-Period RSI Below 2: These are stocks that have a 2-period RSI reading below 2 and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving with a 2-period RSI reading below 2 have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Lennox (NYSE:LII - News). LII's PowerRating (for Traders) is 7.
Bearish
Laps Up 5% or More: These are stocks that lap up by 5% or more and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that lap up by more than 5% have shown negative returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Take-Two Interactive (NasdaqGS:TTWO - News). TTWO's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
5+ Consecutive Up Days: These are stocks that have closed up for five or more consecutive days and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that close up for five or more days have shown negative returns, on average, 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Goodrich Petrol (NYSE:GDP - News). GDP's PowerRating (for Traders) is 3.
5+ Consecutive Higher Highs: These are stocks that have made a higher high for five or more consecutive days and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that make higher highs for five or more days have shown negative returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Pioneer Drilling (NYSE:PDC - News). PDC's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
2-Period RSI Above 98: These are stocks that have a 2-day RSI reading above 98 and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average with a 2-period RSI reading above 98 have shown negative returns, on average, 1-day and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Ev3 (NasdaqGS:EVVV - News). EVVV's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
PowerRatings (for Traders) are courtesy of TradingMarkets.com

Labels: EVVV, GDP, GES, Hot Stocks, LII, PDC, RVBD, TTWO

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NasdaqGS:AEOS - News) said its fourth-quarter net income increased to $150.2 million, or 66 cents a share, from $107.5 million, or 47 cents a share, a year ago, helped by a higher merchandise margin. A Thomson Financial survey of analysts, on average, projected earnings of 66 cents a share for the quarter. Analysts' estimates usually exclude items. The Warrendale, Pa., retailer's revenue for the quarter ended Feb. 3 rose 27% to $973.4 million from $769.1 million, while quarterly same-store sales rose 14%. The company said due to the extra week in fiscal 2006, fourth quarter same-store sales are compared to a 14 week period ended February 4, 2006.
Conseco Inc. (NYSE:CNO - News) reported a large drop in fourth-quarter net income late Tuesday after the insurer was hit with significant losses in its long-term care business.
Copart Inc. (NasdaqGS:CPRT - News) reported second-quarter net earnings of $30.4 million, or 32 cents a share, up from $7.85 million, or 8 cents a share, during the year-ago period. Last year's results were adversely impacted by about $4.9 million as a result of the Gulf coast hurricanes. The Fairfield, Calif.-based provider of vehicle salvage disposition services posted revenue of $128.9 million vs. $125.1 million.
CV Therapeutics Inc. (NasdaqGM:CVTX - News) shares plunged after the biopharmaceutical company said its angina drug Ranexa was shown to be ineffective in treating patients with acute coronary syndrome.
Danaher Corp. (NYSE:DHR - News) said it now sees earnings of 75 to 77 cents a share in the first quarter. The company's previous outlook was for a profit of 72 to 77 cents a share in the March period. The current average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial is for a profit of 77 cents a share in the first quarter. The company issued the forecast ahead of a presentation by H. Lawrence Culp at a conference in New York City sponsored by Citigroup.
EFJ Inc. (NasdaqGM:EFJI - News) shares tumbled after the Irving, Texas-based wireless company reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $7.79 million, or 30 cents a share. In the same quarter last year, the company posted a net profit of $15.4 million, or 59 cents a share. Revenue fell to $23.9 million from $29.8 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial were expecting a per-share loss of 8 cents on revenue of $31.3 million. Separately, EFJ forecast fiscal 2007 revenue of $185 million to $195 million and operating income of $7 million to $10 million.
Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE:FCS - News) said it continues to expects a 3% to 6% decline in its first-quarter revenue. The outlook doesn't include the results of consolidating System General Corp.
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO - News) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $35.3 million, or $1.35 a share, up from a year-ago profit of $31.3 million, or $1.15 a share. On a continuing operations basis, the Nashville, Tenn., footwear company said it earned $35.7 million, or $1.36 a share, in the latest quarter. This performance includes a gain of a penny per share from the recognition of gift card-related income and favorable litigation settlement. Sales rose in the latest three months to $476.9 million from $406.3 million in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was for a profit of $1.31 a share in the January period. Looking ahead, Genesco forecast earnings of $2.78 to $2.81 a share for the fiscal year ending Feb. 2, 2008 on sales of about $1.6 billion. For the first quarter, it sees earnings of 28 cents a share on sales of between $339 million and $341 million. Wall Street's current consensus estimates are for profits of $2.97 a share and 47 cents a share in the respective periods. The company said it expects the performance of its Underground Station Group and Hat World Group businesses to continue to be impacted by ongoing softness in the urban market in the first half of the year.
Jupitermedia Corp. (NasdaqGS:JUPM - News) terminated talks with Getty Images Inc. over a potential transaction between the two companies.
Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:GDP - News) shares fell after the Houston-based company rescheduled the release of it fourth-quarter financial results to March 13 due to a delay in finalizing its year end 2006 independent reserve report.
Heelys Inc.'s (NasdaqGM:HLYS - News) fourth-quarter earnings rose sharply to $11.5 million, or 44 cents a share, from $1.44 million, or 6 cents a share, a year earlier. The Dallas maker of sports-related products said revenue for the quarter rose sharply to $71.1 million from $14.9 million. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected fourth-quarter earnings of 28 cents a share on revenue of $61 million. Analyst estimates typically exclude items.
Hypercom (NYSE:HYC - News), a Phoenix-based firm involved in electronic transactions, said it narrowed its fourth-quarter loss to $2.74 million, or 5 cents a share, from $10.6 million, or 20 cents a share. Hypercom's revenue fell 5% to $64.8 million on a decline in multi-lane product revenue. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings of 2 cents a share on revenue of $61.7 million. It sees 2007 revenue between $284 million and $290 million.
Insmed Inc. (NasdaqGM:INSM - News) said it's restructuring its operations as a result of its litigation settlement with Tercica Inc. and Genentech Inc. , which was announced Tuesday. As a result, Richmond, Va.-based Insmed expects its workforce of 150 to be reduced by roughly 34%. The company said its sales and marketing group will be eliminated and production at its manufacturing site in Boulder, Colo., will be scaled back to reflect the reduced drug product requirement. The company expects the savings to allow it to fund its operations into the fourth quarter of 2007. As of Dec 31, Insmed had $24.1 million of cash on hand.
Plato Learning Inc. (NasdaqGM:TUTR - News) shares fell after the Minneapolis-based provider of computer-based educational products late Tuesday reported a fiscal first-quarter net loss of $4.53 million, or 19 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $3.2 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Revenue fell to $17 million from $23.5 million. The company expects fiscal 2007 revenue in the mid-$70 million range and for its net loss to approximate its 2006 net loss excluding restructuring, impairment and other charges.
Rocky Brands (NasdaqGS:RCKY - News) shares dropped after the Nelsonville, Ohio-based footwear company reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $77,875, or a penny a share. In the same quarter last year, Rocky Brands posted a net profit of $2.61 million, or 46 cents a share. Revenue fell to $70.6 million from $74.9 million. The company expects fiscal 2007 earnings per share growth of 35%, and revenue growth of 5%.
Westwood One Inc. (NYSE:WON - News) swung to a fourth-quarter loss of $488.6 million, or $5.68 a share, from net income of $22.5 million, or 25 cents a share, a year ago, on a goodwill impairment charge of $515.9 million in the latest period. Excluding items, the New York media company said Wednesday it earned $14.6 million, or 17 cents a share, for the final quarter of 2006. Net revenue decreased 12% to $129.8 million from $147 million. National commercial advertisement revenue declined 14% and local/regional commercial advertisement revenue fell 9.4%. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected, on average, fourth-quarter earnings of 10 cents a share and revenue of $125.8 million for the provider of sports, news and traffic updates to radio stations.
Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY - News) was downgraded by UBS to reduce from neutral due primarily to valuation. Analyst Richard Schneider said that based on fundamentals, the stock should be trading around $70 a share, as the company's wood products business is posting losses, homebuilding is declining and as its containerboard business is being hurt by higher wastepaper costs. The stock was down $1.65, or 1.9%, at $84.55 in pre-open trading. As of Tuesday's closing, the stock has gained 22% since the end of 2006, and reached an all-time high of $87.09 in intraday trading on Feb. 27. Schneider said the stock may be trading on expectations that the company will make moves to unlock shareholder value, with some pressuring the company to become a real estate investment trust.
Published By MarketWatch

Labels: AEOS, CNO, CPRT, CVTX, DHR, EFJI, FCS, GCO, GDP, HLYS, HYC, INSM, JUPM, RCKY, TUTR, WON, WY

Acuate Corp. (NASDAQ:ACTU - News) was downgraded to market perform from market outperform. The firm cited expectations for transitional issues as the company moves toward an open source model.
Cardica Inc. (NASDAQ:CRDC - News) said in a regulatory filing that it is initiating a voluntary recall of 55 units of its C-Port xA blood vessel connection system used in heart bypass operations after internal testing showed a manufacturing defect. The Redwood City, Calif., company said the recall will hurt the company's revenue for the quarters ended March 31, 2007, and Dec. 31, 2006, but did not specify by how much.
Centex Corp. (NYSE:CTX - News) said it expects to swing to a third-quarter loss from continuing operations of $2.00 per share, from a profit of $2.52 a share a year ago. The company said it will record land valuation adjustments of around $300 million due to the declining housing market. It has also decided not to exercise land option contracts on 37,000 lots, which will result in walk-away costs of around $150 million. Centex plans to increase its provision for taxes by around $60 million in connection with its ongoing federal tax audit. Excluding these costs, Centex expects adjusted earnings for the quarter of 75 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were expecting earnings of 81 cents a share. For the quarter, Centex said home closings fell 12% to 8,360 and net orders fell 24% to 6,139.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO - News) was downgraded to neutral from buy at Banc of America Sec., due primarily to valuation. Analyst Tim Long said he believes the networker's business is "as good as it gets," and therefore sees limited upside to the shares. In addition, Prudential Equity Group lowered its rating on the networking giant's stock to neutral weight.
Commerce Bancorp (NYSE:CBH - News) shares fell after the bank said it's been advised that an investigation is being conducted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, in conjunction with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Commerce has further been advised that the scope of the investigation will include but not be limited to transactions with its officers, directors and related parties, including transactions involving bank premises," the company said. "Commerce is fully cooperating with the OCC and the Federal Reserve with respect to the investigation." The company also reported its fourth-quarter results, saying net income jumped 68% to $78.7 million, or 40 cents a share.
Edge Petroleum Corp. (NASDAQ:EPEX - News) said it plans to sell 9.2 million common shares. The deal includes an over-allotment option for the sale of an additional 1.38 million common shares. Houston-based Edge also plans to concurrently offer 2 million shares of Series A cumulative preferred stock. The company anticipates it will use the proceeds to finance its pending acquisition of certain properties from Smith Production Inc. and to refinance its existing revolving credit facility.
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX - News) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $441.6 million, or $1.99 per share, down from a year-ago profit of $478.3 million, or $2.19 a share. Revenue rose in the latest three months to $1.64 billion from $1.49 billion in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of $2.12 a share on revenue of $1.72 billion. Looking ahead, Freeport-McMoran said it expects to close in merger agreement with Phelps Dodge in early March. It anticipates sales for the first quarter will be "the highest of the year" with about 400 million pounds of copper and 850,000 ounces of gold.
Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:GDP - News) definitively agreed to sell substantially all its assets in south Louisiana for $100 million, effective as of July 1, 2006. The deal is subject to conditions including a due-diligence financial review by the buyer, which a news release identified as a private purchaser. The purchase price will be adjusted for cash flow to the closing date, which Goodrich estimated as Feb. 27, 2007. Goodrich said the deal enables it to focus on developing its Cotton Valley trend acreage and to reduce operating costs.
Headwaters Inc. (NYSE:HW - News) said it plans to sell $125 million worth of convertible senior subordinated notes due 2014 through a private placement. The deal includes an over-allotment option for the sale of an additional $25 million worth of notes.
Indymac (NYSE:NDE - News) said it expects fourth-quarter net income of 97 cents a share, lower than its earlier forecast of $1.30-$1.40 a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call forecast earnings of $1.34 a share, on average, for the period. "This shortfall reflects the challenging times being faced by the mortgage and housing industries and the difficult nature of forecasting earnings in our business," the Pasadena, Calif., financial services company said.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC - News) shares were lower ahead of the Dow component's quarterly report, which is due after the closing bell. The current average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call is for a profit of 25 cents a share on revenue of $9.44 billion.
KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC - News) was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank.
Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX - News) was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank.
Lamson & Sessions (NYSE:LMS - News) took down its profit outlook due to a slump in the price of PVC pipe due at least in part to a weaker-than-expected residential construction. The company now sees earnings of $2.42 to $2.43 a share for 2006. "This segment's operating loss is due to an industry-wide inventory reduction in the fourth quarter following a mild hurricane season along with lower energy costs," the company said. That meant "an accelerated decline in selling prices that outpaced a decrease in raw material costs. In addition, the residential construction market was much weaker than expected." Previously, the company had been expecting to earn $2.50 to $2.53 a share for the year but, Lamson noted, even the lower number is still a record. On the top line, its still expects to bring in sales of $560 million to $561 million.
Marchex (NASDAQ:MCHX - News) was downgraded to market perform from market outperform at JMP Securities. The firm cited a deceleration of the company's direct navigation business.
Medicines Co. (NASDAQ:MDCO - News) plans to sell six million shares of its common stock. The company also intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 900,000 shares of common stock. Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering. The company was also downgraded to reduce at UBS.
Mesabi Trust (NYSE:MSB - News) declared a distribution of 31.5 cents per beneficial unit late Friday, payable on Feb. 20 to shareholders of record on Jan. 30. The company's distribution was 47 cents per unit for the same period a year earlier, a decline Mesabi attributed to significantly lower shipments of iron ore pellets in the calendar fourth quarter of 2006.
Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS - News) was downgraded to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank.
Sterling Construction Co. (NASDAQ:STRL - News) forecast earnings of $13.4 million to $15 million, or $1.13 to $1.26 per share, for fiscal 2007 on revenue of between $285 million and $310 million. The current average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call is for a profit of $1.30 a share for the year on revenue of $300.9 million. Also, as of Dec. 31, the company's backlog stood at about $395 million, up 29% from year-ago levels. Shares of the Houston-based civil construction company closed Friday at $20, down 2.4%.
Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ:SYMC - News) said it was lowering its third-quarter earnings and revenue forecast, citing a weaker-than-anticipated performance by its data center management business and higher deferrals than expected as a result of a greater proportion of enterprise maintenance contracts. The Cupertino, Calif. security software company cut its earnings estimate to 10 to 11 cents a share from 14 to 15 cents a share and his revenue forecast to $1.29 billion to $1.31 billion from $1.315 billion from $1.149 billion. Excluding non-recurring items, the company lowered its earnings estimate to 24 to 25 cents a share from 29 to 30 cents, and its revenue projection to $1.30 billion to $1.32 billion from $1.325 billion to $1.355 billion. For the fiscal fourth-quarter, the company expects adjusted earnings of 18 to 20 cents a share, below the average analyst estimate compiled by Thomson First Call of 32 cents.

Published By MarketWatch

Labels: ACTU, CBH, CRDC, CSCO, CTX, EPEX, FCX, GDP, HW, INTC, KLAC, LMS, LRCX, MCHX, MDCO, MSB, NDE, NVLS, STRL, SYMC

Business growth slowed to a 2.2 percent pace in the late summer, a much better performance than anticipated and an encouraging sign that the housing slump hasn't been too much of a drag on the economy.
The upgraded reading on gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department Wednesday, was considerably stronger than the 1.6 percent growth rate for the July-to-September quarter that had been estimated a month ago. That pace had been the worst in more than three years.
Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the best barometer of the country's economic fitness.

Labels: Economy, GDP