Jim Cramer Blog

The first topic was crude oil. Forecast for 2008 has changed from $73.33/barrel to $78.99. Weekly oil inventory report expected to show decline. Gold hits 28 year high. Dollar reaches record low vs. euro. Financials are weak. Techs and energy are doing well. Citigroup was the next topic. Robert Rubin’s sale of half a million shares back in May, takes investor confidence away from CitiGroup. Next; Steve Leisman of CNBC talks trade with President Bush. The president is trying to motivate business owners to sell free trade to their workers. Next topic was corporate breakups. Dennis Kneale of CNBC recommends Time Warner as a candidate, and that Sony should stay where they are. Stephen Moore of WSJ says private equity increases could be the bi-product of corporations branching off into two or more different companies. OPEC was next, with the questioning of OPEC being responsible for high oil prices. Vincent Devito says OPEC has no incentive to increase oil production. Adam Hewison blames demand, saying that supply is far shorter than the demand from U.S and other questions. Stephen Moore of WSJ says it is the depreciating dollar is the majority to blame for the high oil prices. Many OPEC officials say high oil prices are dude to speculation. The dollar was next. Rick Santelli says that it is for fundamental reasons that it is depreciating. Gisele wanting to get paid in Euros brings this topic into mainstream speculation. Wendy Bounds of WSJ says eco-friendly LEDS can last 50,000 hrs or 10years, compared to 12,000 hrs with a normal bulb. Polybrite will begin selling these LED bulbs for $10-$14 each.

Labels: 3Com Corp., Dollar, Oil, OPEC, The Call

Oil futures prices rose sharply Wednesday, briefly climbing above a record $80 a barrel after the government reported a surprisingly large drop in crude inventories and declines in gasoline supplies and refinery activity.
The report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration suggested oil supplies are tightening as demand remains strong. That's why oil prices are rising despite OPEC's decision on Tuesday to boost crude production by 500,000 barrels per day this fall, analysts said.
Despite Wednesday's jump, oil is still well below inflation-adjusted highs hit in early 1980. Depending on the adjustment, a $38 barrel of oil in 1980 would be worth $96 to $101 or more today.

Labels: Oil, Oil Prices

The outlook for consumer spending turned hazy Thursday as warnings of weak sales ahead overshadowed better-than-expected March sales at many of the nation's big retailers.
Analysts said rising gasoline prices and the possibility of higher interest rates could lead shoppers to curtail their spending in the coming months. And Wal-Mart Stores Inc., whose customers cut back on shopping when gas prices were high last year, warned that April's selling environment will be tough, while Federated Department Stores Inc. said its first-quarter sales will come in at the low end of expectations. Cooler weather in recent days has stifled sales of spring clothing. And the slowing economy, particularly the weakening housing market, could challenge shoppers in the coming months.
An immediate concern is rising gas prices. Gas and oil climbed Wednesday and Thursday after the government reported a steeper-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories, and there are predictions of $3-a-gallon gasoline by summer. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting showed the central bank is not ruling out an interest rate hike to contain inflation. Higher rates mean consumers will be paying more on their credit card balances, and they can further hurt the already weak housing market.
One of the big pillars for consumer spending has been the solid job market. The Labor Department reported earlier this month that employers added 180,000 jobs in March; the unemployment rate slipped to 4.4 percent, matching a five-year low. But that could weaken if the housing market continues to slump, Perkins said.

Labels: consumer spending, FD, Oil, WMT

The price of crude oil fell $2 to under $63 a barrel Monday as skepticism over Iran's claim that it has begun enriching uranium on an industrial scale sank an early rally.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said at a ceremony Monday at an enrichment facility at Natanz that Iran was now capable of enriching nuclear fuel using 3,000 centrifuges. Some experts said the announced capabilities would fall far short of the material needed to run the plant.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell $2.02 to $62.26 a barrel in midday electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent crude for May fell $1.01 to $66.86 a barrel in electronic trading on London's ICE Futures Exchange.
Traders overreacted to the news out of Iran, sparking an early spurt of buying that reversed itself as Tehran's claims came into question, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. In other Nymex trading, natural gas rose 4.3 cents to $7.650 per 1,000 cubic feet, and heating oil futures were down 0.08 cent at $1.8617 a gallon.

Source: AP

Labels: Crude Oil, Oil, Oil Prices

Oil prices fell Monday following last week's release of British sailors detained by Iran, but concerns over the tight U.S. demand-supply balance and other geopolitical issues supported prices.
Volume was light with much of Europe celebrating an extended Easter holiday.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 44 cents to US$63.84 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at midday in Europe.
Brent crude for May slipped 24 cents to US$68.00 a barrel in electronic trading on London's ICE Futures Exchange.
In other Nymex trading, natural gas fell 3.9 cents to US$7.568 per 1,000 cubic feet, and heating oil futures were down 0.46 cents at US$1.8563 a gallon.
Oil prices rose more than US$5 a barrel -- hitting six-month highs -- after the March 23 detention of the 15 sailors and marines. The market immediately fell following their release Thursday, but trading was stopped from Friday for the long Easter weekend.
Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover noted that prices did not retreat the full US$5 after Iran released the captives.
"That is a sign that we remain in a bullish market, and events are likely to be seen through a bullish lens," Beutel said, noting further upward pressure from record-high first-quarter gasoline demand and U.S. refinery utilization falling below five-year averages.
Last week's annual report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a larger-than-expected increase in gasoline supplies but lower refinery output. Many refineries have suffered unplanned outages in recent weeks, which has weakened demand for crude and reduced gasoline production.
Refinery problems in the U.S. have prompted traders in the physical market to look overseas -- which, combined with increased demand in Europe, has driven the price of oil traded in London up over US$68 a barrel, higher than in New York.

Published by AP

Labels: Crude Oil, Oil, Oil Prices

Oil prices were little changed Monday as traders weighed a strong Asian stock market performance against the longer-term outlook for the U.S. and global economies following an equities selloff last week.
A decision by oil ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain present production targets also sent no clear signals to the market.
"There are concerns that the global equities selloff may not be over and that may impact economic growth and thus oil demand," said Victor Shum of Purvin & Gertz in Singapore of the downward pulls on the market. "These concerns and worries about the state of the U.S. economy have taken some momentum out of the oil market."
Vienna's PVM Oil Associates focused on "expectations of a slowdown in economic growth, together with OPEC's recent decision not to cut output further," as factors keeping a low ceiling on prices.
Light, sweet crude for April delivery was flat at US$57.11 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe.
The contract fell to a six-week low of US$57.11 a barrel after Wall Street slumped last Friday. Stock markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Australia rose Monday, and oil prices opened higher before resuming their slump.
The Brent crude contract for April rose by 10 cents to US$60.40 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
"I think once the worries are over the focus will be back on oil demand," Shum said. "Oil demand remains good. We don't see any slack in Asian oil demand."
Most Asian markets rose Monday, with Chinese stocks recovering from a recent plunge that rattled world markets and Japanese shares advancing as a weaker yen inspired investors to snap up exporters.
A weekend winter storm in the northeastern United States, a major consumer of heating oil and gasoline, appeared to have little lasting effect on prices. Analysts said that with winter coming to an end, traders are starting to turn their attention to spring and summer demand.
Heating oil futures were up by less than a penny at US$1.6966 a gallon (3.8 liters), while natural gas prices fell 10.2 cents to US$6.822 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Published by George Jahn, Associated Press Writer

Labels: Crude Oil, Oil

Oil prices rose Monday as a winter storm plowed across the United States, spurring expectations of strong demand for heating oil.
The storm dumped as much as 2 feet of snow in the Midwest, grounding hundreds of airline flights and closing major highways. The National Weather Service said New York and northern New Jersey might get up to 6 inches of snow.
"Oil prices have been driven by the weather as what is perhaps the last winter storm of the year passes through the U.S. Midwest toward the East Coast, driving strong demand in heating oil," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.
Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 39 cents to $61.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at midday in Europe. Friday's closing price of $61.14 was the highest since Dec. 22.
April Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose 50 cents to $61.38 a barrel.
Heating oil prices gained 0.78 cent to $1.7583 a gallon while natural gas futures rose 10.5 cents to $7.860 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Oil prices also were supported by U.S. inventory figures released last Thursday that showed a larger-than-expected decline in distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, as well as a drawdown in gasoline inventories.
Shokri Ghanem, the head of Libya's oil industry, said Monday that he sees U.S. oil prices remaining close to $60 a barrel for the rest of 2007.
"The price will hover around $60 per barrel, maybe moving up or down slightly, for the rest of the year," Dow Jones Newswires quoted him as saying from his office in Tripoli.
Market participants reacted slightly to news that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday his country's disputed nuclear program was irreversible. Iran, OPEC's No. 2 supplier, also said it successfully tested a rocket that went into space.
"The market has largely factored in the geopolitical threat posed by Iran, therefore you don't see a sharp rise in prices," Shum said.
Senior diplomats from the five permanent U.N. Security Council nations and Germany were meeting Monday in London to start work on a new resolution to try to pressure Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program, which can lead to the production of nuclear weapons.

Labels: Iran, Oil, Oil Prices, USO

Oil prices rose again Monday, after falling earlier in the day on last week's surge fueled by expectations of cold weather in major U.S. markets.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 27 cents to $59.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe.
Brent crude for March delivery on the ICE Futures exchange was still down 11 cents to $58.30 a barrel.
The Nymex contract on Friday rose $1.72 to settle at $59.02 a barrel on colder-than-normal U.S. weather and supply worries driven by a second round of OPEC production cuts.
Oil prices had earlier fallen as low as $49.90 a barrel after an unseasonably warm January.
"The market is just looking at the current cold weather in the U.S. and taking long positions" based on it, said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo.
Heating oil prices rose more than a cent to $1.6968 a gallon while natural gas futures gained 51 cents to $7.991 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Oil prices had also been supported Friday by concerns the two main Nigerian oil workers' unions would hold a strike this week in protest of rising violence in Africa's biggest petroleum producer. The planned Monday strike was called off pending a meeting with President Olusegun Obasanjo.
The 20,000-strong blue- and white-collar unions had threatened the work stoppage after an increase in the number of kidnappings and oil-industry attacks across the southern Niger Delta area, where most of crude in Africa's oil giant is pumped.
Also in Nigeria, officials said Sunday hostage takers released nine Chinese oil-worker captives.
Expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will tighten their spigots further are also likely to shore up crude oil prices.
"Once again this week there were few comments from OPEC members and those that did speak emphasized a consensus to implement existing cuts rather than announce further reductions," said Eoin O'Callaghan, an analyst at BNP Paribas.
"And while a speculative point, it is worth noting that the recent rebound in front month (March) crude futures is also consistent with a tightening of compliance by OPEC after the January fall."
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Saudi Arabia has advised its customers of its impending 158,000 barrel a day output cut effective Feb. 1. The reduction is part of a December agreement by OPEC to cut output by 500,000 barrels a day on top of an earlier production cut of 1.2 million barrels a day.
Published by AP

Labels: Crude Oil, Oil, Oil Prices

Oil prices settled above $59 a barrel Friday, finishing the week at its highest close for 2007. Colder-than-normal weather in the U.S. and concerns over a second round of OPEC production cuts fueled the week's rally.
Heightened geopolitical risks also helped boost prices on Friday.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $1.72 to settle at $59.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest close since it finished at $61.05 on the last trading day of 2006.
In after-hours electronic trading on Friday, the contract climbed further, reaching $59.25 a barrel by late afternoon.
Brent crude for March delivery gained $1.69 to settle at $58.41 a barrel Friday on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Labels: Crude Oil, Oil, Oil Prices

Oil prices rose Thursday as OPEC was set to put a new round of production cuts into effect.
The rise came a day after prices climbed more than $1 a barrel as the market focused on a drop in U.S. heating oil stockpiles and the Federal Reserve's suggestion economic growth is firmer than many anticipated.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 14 cents to US$58.28 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe. Brent crude for March rose 13 cents to US$57.53 a barrel at London's ICE Futures exchange.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was set to begin on Thursday its second round of production cuts, announced late last year, of 500,000 barrels a day. While most analysts and tanker trackers believe the cartel has fallen well short of its first cut, Saudi Arabia added support to prices this week when it said it would cut its share -- 158,000 barrels a day -- from Feb. 1.
"At least the top dog has indicated they're going to comply with their share of the output cut," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "What's emerging is quite clear: The supply-demand balance is tightening even if OPEC doesn't fully comply with the cuts. Oil demand is also likely to remain strong, as the latest economic data out of the United States indicates."
On Wednesday, the U.S. government reported that the domestic economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the last quarter of 2006.
Later, in a statement accompanying the Fed's decision to keep interest rates on hold, policy makers said: "Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth and some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market."
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report on Wednesday was close to what most traders were expecting, and reaffirmed the belief that U.S. supplies of crude and gasoline remain abundant, but recent cold weather has been eating into heating fuel supplies.
The EIA said crude oil inventories rose last week by 2.7 million barrels to 324.9 million barrels; gasoline inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 224.6 million barrels; and distillate inventories -- which include heating oil and diesel fuel -- fell by 2.6 million barrels to 140.0 million barrels. A decrease in heating oil offset a small increase in diesel fuel.
Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected through mid-February in the U.S. Northeast, which accounts for 80 percent of U.S. heating oil consumption.
Heating oil dropped 0.52 cents to US$1.6786 a gallon and natural gas prices added 11.4 cents to US$7.781 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Published by AP

Labels: Hot Stocks, Oil, Oil Prices

Oil prices fell more than $1 Wednesday as the market adjusted to a spike the day before and digested a big jump in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories.
Crude oil rose last week by 2.7 million barrels to 324.9 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report Wednesday.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 224.6 million barrels, while distillate inventories -- which include heating oil and diesel fuel -- fell by 2.6 million barrels to 140.0 million barrels. A decrease in heating oil surpassed a small increase in diesel fuel.
The results were close to what most traders were expecting, and reaffirmed the belief that U.S. supplies of crude and gasoline remain ample.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell $1.05 to $55.92 in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery dipped $1.15 to $55.25 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Nymex heating oil futures were down nearly 2 cents at $1.6190 a gallon.
Gasoline futures fell more than 3 cents to $1.4875 a gallon.
Natural gas futures dropped more than 23 cents to $7.508 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Oil and natural gas prices jumped Tuesday on expectations of more cold weather in the United States and renewed concerns about OPEC production cuts. Oil traded as high as $57.05 before falling back to settle at $56.97 a barrel, a gain of $2.96.
Natural gas had soared more than 80 cents, or 11.6 percent, on forecasts that predict temperatures will dip below freezing in the U.S. Midwest, the heart of the natural gas market.
Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected through mid-February in the U.S. Northeast, which is responsible for 80 percent of the country's heating oil consumption.
The market could rebound again, with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries seemingly ready to pay more attention to agreed-on production constraints.
Published by Madlen Read, AP Business Writer

Labels: Gasoline, Oil

Oil prices fell back Wednesday after the previous day's jump with the market expecting that U.S. petroleum inventories rose in the most recent week.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery dropped 40 cents to $54.64 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at midday in Europe.
March Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange was down 26 cents at $54.84 a barrel.
On Tuesday, prices leaped $2.48, or 4.7 percent, to settle at $55.04 after the U.S. government announced plans to boost its emergency crude stockpile this spring at a rate of 100,000 barrels per day.
The Department of Energy said it plans to increase the capacity of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 1.5 billion barrels from 691 million barrels. The announcement raised the prospect of increased demand.
Traders were awaiting the release of weekly petroleum inventory figures from the Department of Energy later Wednesday. According to the average forecast of 10 analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires, U.S. crude oil stocks may have risen by 1.1 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories on average are expected to have increased by 1.1 million barrels, and distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by about 700,000 barrels.
"Any unexpected gain in stocks may trigger a large sell-off," said Koichi Murakami, an analyst with brokerage Daiichi Shohin in Tokyo.
Last week, figures showed the biggest increase in crude inventories in more than four years, which suggests energy prices may have further to fall despite Monday's initial bounce. It said crude oil stockpiles rose by 6.8 million barrels to 321.5 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 12.
Growing crude inventories and unusually warm weather in the United States dragged oil prices below $50 a barrel last week for the first time since May 2005. But prices rallied Monday following a weekend storm, and seasonal temperatures persisted Tuesday as a cold front moved into the north-central U.S.
In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures dropped 0.68 cent to $1.5695 a gallon, while natural gas fell 16.7 cents to $7.430 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Labels: Crude Oil, Oil

Shares of U.S. airlines fell on Monday, with Continental Airlines (CAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) down more than 6.5 percent, partly on rising oil prices. Additional pressure on the stocks came as investor enthusiasm for the industry consolidation outlook diminished, one analyst said. AMR Corp. (AMR.N: Quote, Profile, Research), parent of American Airlines, UAL Corp. (UAUA.O: Quote, Profile, Research), parent of United Airlines, and US Airways Group (LCC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) each fell more than 5 percent. The Amex airline index <.XAL> was down 4.43 percent at midday. The November 15 bid by US Air for bankrupt Delta Air Lines (DALRQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) failed to produce the stock rally that many experts had expected, and investors have begun to sell those shares, said Helane Becker, analyst at The Benchmark Company. Oil prices -- directly linked to the price of jet fuel -- gained on Monday with NYMEX crude futures up 56 cents, at $59.80 a barrel.
Shares of Continental were down 6.8 percent at $42.29 on the New York Stock Exchange. AMR shares were down 5.8 percent at $32.13 on NYSE. UAL shares fell 5.7 percent to $41.89 on Nasdaq. US Air shares slipped 6 percent to $59.15 on NYSE.
Source: Reuters.com

Labels: Airlines, AMR, Continental, Delta Airlines, Oil, UAL

U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday, with major indexes falling by their biggest margin in months, amid concern about Google Inc.'s (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) valuation and doubts about holiday spending after a disappointing sales estimate from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research). In addition, downward pressure on the dollar for a fourth straight day hurt demand for U.S. investments, while a rise in crude oil prices above $60 a barrel added to concerns about consumer spending. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 158.38 points, or 1.29 percent, at 12,121.79. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 19.02 points, or 1.36 percent, at 1,381.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 54.34 points, or 2.21 percent, at 2,405.92. For the Nasdaq, it was the biggest net point decline since September 24, 2003. The S&P 500 notched its biggest percentage decline since early June and the Dow fell its most since early July. Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares fell 4.2 percent, or 36 cents, to $8.16 on the New York Stock Exchange after it announced plans to borrow $18 billion by pledging assets as collateral to fund its restructuring. In another sign of investor worries, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index <.VIX> jumped 14.6 percent on Monday. The indicator, also known as the VIX and the market's fear gauge, measures expectations of near-term volatility determined by the Standard & Poor's 500 <.SPX> options prices. Shares of Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, fell 2.7 percent, or $1.29, to $46.61 on the NYSE after it estimated November sales fell 0.1 percent at U.S. stores open at least a year. Shares of Web search company Google fell 4 percent, or $20.25, to $484.75 and were the biggest drag on the Nasdaq after the report in Barron's.
The dollar's recent decline to a 20-month low against the euro of $1.3172 has raised questions about the attractiveness of U.S. stocks to foreigners. U.S. crude oil for January delivery climbed $1.08 to settle at $60.32 a barrel. Saudi Arabia's oil minister said OPEC may cut output further at a December 14 meeting. Shares of U.S. airlines fell on Monday, with Continental Airlines (CAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) down 7.3 percent, or $3.31, at $42.07 in Big Board trading, partly on rising oil prices. Shares of AMR Corp.(AMR.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the operator of American Airlines, slid 5.6 percent, or $1.90, to $32.20 on NYSE. Trading was active on the NYSE, with about 1.61 billion shares changing hands, matching last year's daily average of 1.61 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 2.00 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 1.80 billion. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
Source: Reuters.com

Labels: AMR, Continental, Ford, Google, Hot Stocks, Oil, Wal-Mart

Oil prices were up Monday as the market opened after a U.S. long weekend, but stayed within the range of the last eight weeks because there were no geopolitical or weather factors driving prices.
Light sweet crude for January delivery rose 31 cents to US$59.55 a barrel in midmorning Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Trading was light last week, with floor trading closed for two days due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Oil prices have fallen by about 23 percent since hitting an all-time trading high above US$78 a barrel in mid-July. They haven't settled above US$62 a barrel since Oct. 1, despite the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' announcement in mid-October that it would reduce output by 1.2 million barrels a day.
Skepticism that OPEC members are committing to production cuts, as well as milder-than-normal U.S. temperatures this fall, have moderated prices.

Labels: Crude Oil, Oil, OPEC

U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Tuesday as cautious investors took few new positions before the Thanksgiving holiday, but shares of aircraft maker Boeing Co. (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Web search leader Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) soared to record highs, offsetting a jump in oil prices. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was up 2.88 points, or 0.02 percent, to end unofficially at 12,319.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 2.21 points, or 0.16 percent, to finish unofficially at 1,402.71. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 1.98 points, or 0.08 percent, to close unofficially at 2,454.70.
Source: Reuters.com

Labels: BA, Boeing, GOOG, Google, Oil