U.S. stocks are poised to extend their stunning year-end rally in the coming week as more evidence that the economy is headed for a soft landing is expected to come out as well as higher earnings from the likes of Morgan Stanley and Oracle Corp.
Revived hopes for a rate cut - or least a continuation of a pause in the central bank's campaign to raise interest rates - pushed blue-chip shares to two record closing highs this past week after the Fed left rates unchanged, and took the S&P 500 Index to its highest level since the end of 2000.
"We will see some profit taking and some choppy trading until December 31," said James Park, managing director at Rodman & Renshaw, "but my bias is toward the upside."
The last full week of trading of the year will feature another raft of economic data. Housing starts, durable goods, and the central's banks preferred reading on inflation, the core personal consumer expenditure index, are on tap.
The Christmas holiday on Monday, Dec. 25 will shorten the final week of equity trading.
On the earnings front, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:
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Database software maker Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ:
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Biomet Inc.'s (NASDAQ:
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On hold
Stronger-than-expected retail sales and a tame consumer inflation report for November this past week eased concerns that the Fed will find reason to resume tightening rates early next year.
The Fed on Tuesday left its key overnight lending rate at 5.25% but in its accompanying statement reiterated its concern that core inflation is too high for its taste, which is no more than the 2% on an annualized basis.
But the market ended higher on Friday after data showed consumer prices were unchanged in November in the headline reading and the core reading, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. The core reading was the lowest since June 2005.
Alec Young, equity market strategist at Standard & Poor's, said it's evident that the economy is decelerating. However, he expects investors to remain in buying mode because the slowdown is still "healthy enough" to drive earnings growth and hasn't forced consumers to dramatically rein in spending.
Young said many investors are still looking for a rate cut from the Fed, but he thinks it's better for them to stay on hold for now.
'We don't think [a rate hold is] a negative for the market. That just validates this whole not-too-hot, not-to-cold scenario," for both the economy and inflation.
After the release of the CPI figures, the odds of an interest rate cut by the end of the first quarter of 2007 doubled. April fed funds futures now imply a 24% chance rates will be lowered to 5%.
"I see people dressing up and marking up some of their portfolios at the end of the year," said Park. Trading is likely to be volatile due to lack of liquidity in the final days, he said.
Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, said next week he'll be on the lookout for weekly data from Chicago-based Shopper Trak RTC to see how the holiday shopping season is holding up.
Nolte will also focus on developments in the housing sector. There has been debate this week about whether the market is close to a bottom, and it will be "important to either confirm or deny that."
The housing starts figure from the Commerce Department due Tuesday is expected to rise to 1.52 million from 1.49 million.
Nolte said "the bond market is not yet so sure," whether the economy is headed toward a soft landing or a hard landing.
However, it's clear to him that the equity market believes the slowdown has worked itself out successfully, and that the large amount of corporate and private equity cash "floating around from the merger and acquisition arena," has been underpinning strength.
What's not clear to Nolte is when stocks will take a sustainable break from their advance.
"The markets are well extended here and way overdue for a modest, if not normal, correction of 5% to 10%. The big question is when does that occur, and I have no idea."
Dow hits record high; crude futures rises
The lack of evidence of inflation, sizzling earnings from the likes of Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (
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For the week, the blue-chip index gained 1.1%, the S&P 500 added 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%.
Treasury prices were unable to sustain a rally that sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to an intraday low of 4.5%. Prices closed unchanged, leaving the benchmark note with a yield of 4.597%.
The U.S. dollar recovered from a sharp selloff after to end at a one-month high versus the yen and a three-week high against the euro Friday. The dollar advanced 1.6% for the week against the yen and 0.9% versus the euro. As the greenback dropped, gold futures fell almost $12 an ounce Friday, while silver lost 7% and copper prices sank to a six-month low. Gold ended with a 1.9% for the week.
Crude futures rose above $63 a barrel on Friday and logged a weekly increase of 2% for the week. The higher prices were supported by concerns that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had pledged on Thursday to cut production in February.
By Carla Mozee
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