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Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Hot Stocks to Watch Today

News that the Centro smartphone was taking customers away from the iPhone boosted shares of Palm (NasdaqGS:PALM) which manufactures the Internet-capable device. The Short Term PowerRating for PALM is 3.
An upgrade from Deutsche Bank AG helped oil refiners such as Tesoro (NYSE:TSO) move higher on Monday. The Short Term PowerRating for TSO is 3.
Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) was among a number of Wall Street investment banks that saw its debt rating downgraded by Standard and Poor's on Monday. The Short Term PowerRating for LEH is 6.
Acorda Therapeutics (NasdaqGM:ACOR) was a standout stock on Monday as investors bid shares higher in the wake of positive clinical trial results for the biotech company's multiple sclerosis drug.
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is scheduled to announce quarterly earnings tomorrow morning before the bell. Analysts are expecting a loss of 0.87 EPS. The Short Term PowerRating for TOL is 5.
The board of directors of Wachovia (NYSE:WB) finally removed CEO Ken Thompson, while Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM) announced that Kerry Killinger would be replaced as chairman - though Killinger will stay on as CEO. The Short Term PowerRating for WM is 6.

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Thursday, May 15, 2008

Jim Cramer's Stop Trading May 14h

Buy Caterpillar (CAT), Jim Cramer said on CNBC's "Stop Trading!" segment Wednesday.
On news of an earthquake that has cost a great deal of damage and as many as 15,000 lives, Cramer spoke of the "rebuild in China," which he said was an equivalent of Hurricane Katrina in terms of infrastructure buildout. He pointed viewers to Caterpillar and Terex (TRX) as plays on the news. He also recommended Cummins (CMI). "They're all headed up ... because of the rebuild," he said.
Cramer said today's rally has a lot to do with bullish action from mortgage insurer Freddie Mac (FRE). "They have gotten rid of the systemic risk," he said. He called Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (FNM) the "last of the black holes" for the financial crunch.
Cramer said Freddie is getting a lot of business, which he thinks may actually offset the company's losses. He said bears don't believe that's the case, but he pointed out that Freddie is a well-run company. Fannie is not as good, he said.
In the consumer discretionary space, Cramer said he had thought "the buyers would just call it quits" after the government's stimulus checks came in. He revised his forecast, saying maybe earnings from Kohl's (KSS) tomorrow will be the time to sell.
He expressed his surprise at the continued rise of some retailers. "Certainly we know that Costco (COST) is better than we thought. ... TJX (TJX) was a little disappointing, and look -- it goes up." He pointed out that Wal-Mart (WMT) stock has traded back to where it was before reporting earnings.
"A lot of people feel that the worst is over," Cramer said. He pointed out that the Fed called victory when inflation numbers came in better than expected.
Cramer also said that the year of wind power may arrive this year, not next year as he had previously predicted. He pointed out bullish action in Fluor (FLR) and First Solar (FSLR) as evidence of alternative energy stories.
He also said that Research In Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL) and MasterCard (MA) are offering leadership in the economy.
On the housing crisis, Cramer said that Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO Bob Toll was "negative negative negative" when the two spoke on last night's "Mad Money" TV show. He predicted that the housing problem in Florida would be much better in 18 months.

Published By TheStreet.com

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Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Jim Cramer's Mad Money Stock Recap May 13th

On news that EnCana (ECA) would be splitting into a natural gas firm and an integrated oil company, Cramer said several other companies might make a similar move. He pointed to Anadarko (APC) and ExxonMobil (XOM).
"My urging is you go over these companies," Cramer said. "They all have oil, and they've all got gas businesses." He advised against chasing the stocks higher, but said that inventory numbers could send these stocks down, creating a buying opportunity.
Cramer also discussed Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO Bob Toll, who will be appearing on "Mad Money" tonight. Cramer praised Toll for always being "straight with me." He said the homebuilding CEO is "not bullish at all." Cramer said he would ask Toll why he is talking about buying more land, a move of which Cramer is skeptical.
Published By TheStreet.com

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Monday, January 28, 2008

Jim Cramer's Stop Trading Jan. 25th

Just so you know, I just issued an alert. ... You should buy it here," he said of the cosponsors of Vytorin, which made headlines today after the Food and Drug Administration said it would issue early communication on the drug. He's reminded of Bausch and Lomb, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and other pharmaceutical companies that experienced exaggerated stock-price dives on bad news. Those situations, Cramer said, represented buying opportunities.
"The headline risk in drugs is also far worse," Cramer said. "This is what happens with drug stocks. Everyone panics at the same time. They get knocked all the way down."
"This is just unbelievable to me," Cramer added, saying that to cut shares of Schering-Plough so much, investors would have to believe the FDA was going to pull Vytorin.
Cramer continued, "I would buy Merck too. ... This is a classic headline overreaction."
Cramer concluded by saying he prefers Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) and Toll Brothers (TOL) to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). "I just think that they're not investible. ... I didn't like them ... yesterday."
Published By TheStreet.com

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Thursday, January 24, 2008

Will Bush's Tax Plan Save the Real Estate Market?

Congressional leaders announced a deal with the White House Thursday on an economic stimulus package that would give most tax filers refunds of $600 to $1,200, and more if they have children.
More importantly, to address the mortgage crisis, the package also raises the limits on Federal Housing Administration loans and home mortgages that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can purchase to as high as $725,000 in high-cost areas. Those are considerable boosts over the current FHA limit of $362,000 and the $417,000 cap for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's loan purchases. This can be a major development in the recovery of the housing markets. It could be about that time to get into the housing stocks such as Toll Brothers or Centex.

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Thursday, December 06, 2007

Stock Market Wrapup Dec. 6th

Stocks stormed higher on the day, brushing aside mixed retail sales reports in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. The Dow added 175 points on the day to end at 13,620. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was up 1.6% to close at 2,709, and the S&P finished up 1.5% at 1,507. Light, sweet crude prices climbed higher on the day with oil settling at $90.23 a barrel for January delivery. Treasury prices fell, while gold prices gained to close at $807.10 an ounce. The dollar gained against the yen, but declined versus the euro.
In economic news, a report from the Labor Department showed the number of jobless claims dropping last week, as Wall Street prepares for the department's monthly labor report tomorrow. According to the report, the number of claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by 15,000 to a total of 338,000. It was the largest decline in three months.
On the earnings front, shares of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL - News) soared 13.0% despite reporting its first quarterly loss in 21 years. For the quarter, the homebuilder posted a net loss of -$81.8 million, or -52 cents per share, versus a profit of $173.8 million, or $1.07 per share, last year. Excluding a $314.9 million write-down, the company would have posted earnings of 72 cents per share. Quarterly revenue fell to $1.17 billion, down -35% from a year ago. On average, analysts were looking for a loss of -77 cents per share on revenue of $1.166 billion.
Elsewhere, imaging equipment maker Analogic (Nasdaq: ALOG - News) swung to a profit in the first quarter on earnings of $6.4 million, or 48 cents per share, versus a net loss of -$5.4 million, or -39 cents per share, in the prior year. Excluding one-time items, the company would have earned 53 cents per share compared with earnings of 12 cents per share last year. Revenue for the quarter jumped to $94.2 million, up 25% from $75.6 million in 2006. Analysts were expecting earnings of 40 cents per share on $87.4 million in revenue. Analogic's stock was up 18.2% at the bell.
In other corporate news, shares of ConAgra (NYSE: CAG - News) traded 6.3% higher on the day after the packaged food company said its second-quarter earnings would be higher than expected. ConAgra had previously said results would be in line with last year's earnings of 43 cents per share. Analysts were looking for a profit of 41 cents per share for the 2008 period.
Discount retailer Target (NYSE: TGT - News) said today that if recent soft sales patterns continue, the company will likely miss its previous estimates for December same-store sales. The company also reported that December sales needed to "meaningfully improve" in order to achieve fourth-quarter EPS growth. Shares of Target were off -7.6% for the session.
By the BullMarket.com Staff

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Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) Reports an $80m+ Loss!

Toll Brothers Inc., the nation's largest builder of luxury homes, said Thursday it swung to a loss for its fourth fiscal quarter during what the company calls the worst housing downturn in decades. It is the first quarterly loss recorded by the company in 21 years.
The Horsham-based builder reported a net loss of $81.8 million, or 52 cents per share, for the three months ending Oct. 31, compared with a net income of $173.8 million, or $1.07 per share, a year ago. The loss included $314.9 million in pretax writedowns, mainly for homes it could no longer sell at a profit. In the fourth quarter of 2006, pretax writedowns totaled $115 million.
Without the writedowns, Toll Brothers would have posted fourth-quarter earnings of 72 cents per share, less than half the $1.49 per share profit that was posted during the same quarter a year earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a loss of 77 cents per share. The predictions typically exclude one time charges or writedowns.

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Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Hot Stocks to Watch Thursday

Here are 7 stocks for traders for Thursday from TradingMarkets.com:
Casey's General Store (NasdaqGS:CASY - News) beat expectations on Wednesday afternoon with $0.55 EPS over $0.46 EPS. CASY's PowerRating (for Traders) is 6.
Comtech Telecom (NasdaqGS:CMTL - News) beat earnings expectations on Wednesday after the bell, announcing $0.54 EPS over an expected $0.49 EPS. CMTL's PowerRating (for Traders) is 5.
Analogic (NasdaqGS:ALOG - News) reports earnings on Thursday morning before the bell, with traders looking for $0.40 EPS. ALOG's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
CDC Corporation (NasdaqGM:CHINA - News) announces quarterly earnings Thursday morning; watch for $0.09 EPS. CHINA's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
Flow (NasdaqGM:FLOW - News) is looking to announce $0.08 EPS on Thursday before the market opens. FLOW's PowerRating (for Traders) is 2.
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL - News) should announce -$0.77 EPS on Thursday morning. TOL's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
Toro (NYSE:TTC - News) is expected to report $0.12 EPS tomorrow morning before the bell. TTC's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.

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Jim Cramer's Stop Trading Dec. 4th

J. Crew (JCG) was the only stock pick Cramer offered on CNBC's "Stop Trading!" segment Tuesday, but its quarter was so good that Cramer had CEO Mickey Drexler sign a conference call transcript as a keepsake.
"The guy's my hero," Cramer said, explaining his fanaticism. "It was a great quarter."
During the remainder of the segment, Cramer discussed the continuing liquidity crisis.
The matter comes down to CEO confidence, Cramer believes. "If they have liquidity... why are the cancellations so great? ... People are talking about 30%" of loans ending in foreclosure, Cramer said.
No one knows how bad things are, he said. "We can't loan to this level of value, and we can't get appraisal," he said. "In the Toll Brothers (TOL) call, [CEO Robert Toll said] at this time next year we'll be worrying more about the election than we will about housing prices."
The market is "not priced out, but mortgaged out," Cramer stressed. "That's a confidence issue."
"When you want a home, it's very hard for you to come buy one, particularly in that $400,000 to $500,000 level," he added.

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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Fast Money Recap Sept. 18th

The Fed's 50 point cut on Tuesday sparked the stock market, and CNBC's "Fast Money" discussed why the bulls are running, and what it means for financial stocks:
Najarian: Tuesday's actions all about the financials. Financial Select Sector SPDR, ton of volume in call options.
Macke: Can't be short financials now.
Adami: continues to like financials; Lehman Brothers(LEH), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS)
All Clear on Wall Street? CNBC's Charlie Gasparino discussed whether brokers are a buy now. Gasparino feels confident about most of the brokers except Bear Stearns (BSC)--lease diversed and tied to credit markets.
OIL: Crude oil hit another record touching $81.51 and gold traded to $735, its highest level in 27 years. Author Dennis Gartman: Shocked by feds decision. Thinks stock market will continue to climb.
Housing Market: Adami: housing stocks are back for a trade. He likes Hovanian, (HOV), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Pulte Homes (PHM)
Finerman: Still likes Home Depot(HD), which she owns for its cheap valuation.
Word on the Street: Cummings (CMI) and Caterpillar (CAT) exploded higher on the Fed cut. Najarian: Thinks CAT has much more upside to come.
Global: China and Brazil's markets soared on the rate cuts. Tim Seymour, Principal at Red Star Asset Management, joined the crew to discuss the emerging markets. Seymour likes gold and Brazil ETF (EWZ)
Face 2 Face:
Viewer writes: "What happened to the recommendation to get out of gold if the Fed dropped its rates?" Adami reiterated his bearish stance on gold.
Viewer writes: "Should I sell my October $195 call options on Goldman Sachs (GS) now or is there still more upside?" Najarian- feels strong about GS, but you should take half the position off before earnings.
Viewer writes: "What is your outlook for Tiffany's (TIF) as the holiday season approaches?" Macke is positive about Tiffany's and Blue Nile (NILE)
Pops & Drops:
Pops: Macke-Caterpillar (CAT), Finerman-Target (TGT), Adami-Alcoa (AA)-could be bought out by Najarian's pick-Billiton (BHP), and Finerman-Wendy's (WEN)
Drops: Najarian-E*Trade (ETFC), Macke-Hovnanian(DOG), Adami-Boeing(BA)
Final Trade:
Macke- Macy's (M)
Finerman- Altria (MO)
Adami- Nucor (NUE)
Najarian- Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO)

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Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Hot Stock Options to Watch Today

Here are 7 options to watch for Today.
Most Underpriced Calls: These are the most under priced calls of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Explosion List finds groups of calls for individual equities that are under priced, this list finds the most under priced individual calls. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely under priced.
CME Group Oct 610 Calls (NYSE:CME - News). CME's PowerRating (for Traders) is 6.
Most Underpriced Puts: These are the most under priced puts of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Explosion List finds groups of puts for individual equities that are under priced, this list finds the most under priced individual puts. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely under priced.
Google Sep 520 Puts (NasdaqGS:GOOG - News). GOOG's PowerRating (for Traders) is 6.
Most Overpriced Calls: These are the most overpriced calls of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Implosion List finds groups of calls for individual equities that are overpriced, this list finds the most overpriced individual calls. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely overpriced.
Accredited Home Lenders Oct 10 Calls (NasdaqGS:LEND - News). LEND's PowerRating (for Traders) is 3.
Most Overpriced Puts: These are the most overpriced puts of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Implosion List finds groups of puts for individual equities that are overpriced, this list finds the most overpriced individual puts. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely overpriced.
Intuitive Surgical Oct 185 Puts (NasdaqGS:ISRG - News). ISRG's PowerRating (for Traders) is 7.
Stocks with Abnormal Call Volume: These are stocks which showed unusual call option volume not easily explained by arbitrage operations. The appearance of a stock on the Call Volume Alerts list suggests a possible takeover, extraordinarily good earnings report, or other news which may favorably affect the stock.
ImClone Systems (NasdaqGS:IMCL - News). IMCL's PowerRating (for Traders) is 2.
Stocks with Abnormal Put Volume: These are stocks which showed unusual put option volume not easily explained by arbitrage operations. The appearance of a stock on the Put Volume Alerts list suggests an extraordinarily negative earnings report, or other news which may negatively affect the stock.
KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY - News). KEY's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
Abnormal Put/Call $ Volume: These stocks have the highest dollar put volume in relation to their call volume. These high ratios are indicative of extreme bearish sentiment in the underlying stock.
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL - News). TOL's PowerRating (for Traders) is 6.
By TradingMarkets Research

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Thursday, August 23, 2007

Hot Stocks to Watch Today

Here are 7 trading ideas for today. These lists come directly from the TradingMarkets Stock Indicators page and are based upon our latest quantitative research.
Bullish
Stocks Down 10% or More: These are stocks that have lost 10% or more over the past five days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that have lost 10% or more over the past five days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Seabridge Gold (NYSE:SA - News). SA's PowerRating (for Traders) is 8.
Bearish
Laps Up 5% or More: These are stocks that lap up by 5% or more and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that lap up by more than 5% have shown negative returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL - News). TOL's PowerRating (for Traders) is 5.
5+ Consecutive Up Days: These are stocks that have made a higher high for five or more consecutive days and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that make higher highs for five or more days have shown negative returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Applebee's International (NasdaqGS:APPB - News) & Disney (NYSE:DIS - News). APPB's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4, and DIS's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
5+ Consecutive Higher Highs: These are stocks that have made a higher high for five or more consecutive days and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that make higher highs for five or more days have shown negative returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Big Lots (NYSE:BIG - News) & Jos A Bank Clothiers (NasdaqGS:JOSB - News). BIG's PowerRating (for Traders) is 2, and JOSB's PowerRating (for Traders) is 2.
Stocks Up 10% or More: These are stocks that have gained 10% or more over the past five days and are trading below their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading below their 200-day moving average that have gained 10% or more over the past five days have shown negative returns, on average, 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.
Take-Two Interactive Software (NasdaqGS:TTWO - News). TTWO's PowerRating (for Traders) is 3.
PowerRatings (for Traders) are courtesy of TradingMarkets.com

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) Profit Falls 85%

Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. said Wednesday that quarterly profits were down 85 percent and CEO Robert I. Toll said the builder is battling "softer demand and excess housing supply."
As for the upset in the mortgage markets, the CEO said it has not been much of an issue so far for the builder. "With few exceptions, the investors who provide our customers with mortgages continue to issue new commitments," Toll said, even for jumbo loans over $417,000. Going forward, though, he said "tightening credit standards will likely shrink the pool of potential home buyers."
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL - News) of Horsham, Pa., said its third fiscal quarter profit was $26.5 million, or 16 cents per share, compared to $174.6 million, or $1.07 per share, in the year-earlier period. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was a 2 cents-per-share loss.
The results were affected by $88.5 million in write-downs. The write-downs in the year-earlier period were $14.6 million.
Revenues in the quarter were $1.21 billion, down 21 percent from $1.53 billion in third-quarter 2006. Net signed contracts dropped to $727 million from $1.05 billion and there were 347 units canceled, compared to 384 in the year-earlier period.
Toll has continued to reduce land owned and optioned and was down to 63,000 lots at the end of the quarter, from a peak of 91,200 at the end of the second quarter in 2006.
The CEO said that the company has remained profitable in the housing downturn. Strategies have included a "build-to-order operating model" in single-family developments, where "we typically do not start a home until we have a contract in place and a significant non-refundable down-payment." Toll shares closed up 5 percent Wednesday at $22.15.
Published August 22, 2007 by the Philadelphia Business Journal

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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Hot Stocks to Watch Tomorrow

Here are 7 stocks for traders for Wednesday from TradingMarkets.com:
Analog Devices (NYSE:ADI - News) beat earnings expectations on Tuesday afternoon, announcing $0.37 EPS over an expected $0.36 EPS. ADI's PowerRating (for Traders) is 5.

Medtronic (NYSE:MDT - News) matched earnings after the bell on Tuesday with $0.62 EPS. MDT's PowerRating (for Traders) is 5.
Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV - News) reports earnings on Wednesday before the market opens; look for $0.42 EPS. EV's PowerRating (for Traders) is 6.
Frontline (NYSE:FRO - News) should announce $1.08 EPS before the bell on Wednesday. FRO's PowerRating (for Traders) is 5.
When Regis (NYSE:RGS - News) reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday morning, watch for $0.57 EPS. RGS's PowerRating (for Traders) is 4.
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL - News) should report $0.05 EPS on Wednesday morning before the market opens. TOL's PowerRating (for Traders) is 5.
WCI Communities (NYSE:WCI - News) is expected to announce -$1.13 EPS Wednesday morning. WCI's PowerRating (for Traders) is 3.
PowerRatings (for Traders) are courtesy of TradingMarkets.com

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Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Stock Market Wrapup Aug. 8th

Stocks finished the session stronger on the heels of upbeat technology earnings as well as a lessened fear over the current worrisome credit markets. At the close, all three major indexes closed higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the way with a 2% gain. Treasuries fell the most in a month, with the benchmark 10-year note ending the trading day yielding 4.86%.

In earnings news, the shares of luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL - News) rose 6% after the company said third-quarter preliminary results were better than analyst expectations. For Q3, it sees revenues falling -21% to $1.21 billion, higher than estimates of $1.08 billion. The above-forecast revenues for the period masked a quarter in which the company is still feeling the brunt of the housing market slowdown. Net signed contracts, a measure of future activity, fell -31% to $727.1 million. Cancellations rose 23.8%, while backlog fell -34%. Other homebuilder stocks as well as housing-related companies rose sharply on the news.
Number-three mobile phone carrier Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S - News) posted a -94% drop in second-quarter earnings. Earnings from continuing operations were $19 million, or a penny a share, down from $370 million, or 10 cents a share, in the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis, it earned 25 cents a share, down from 32 cents in the same period last year. Revenues rose 2% to $10.16 billion. Analysts were looking for earnings of 22 cents on sales of $10.21 billion. The company reiterated its full-year revenue guidance of $41-42 billion. Shares slipped -2.2% after the carrier said customer cancellations may hurt its current quarter's growth. Subscribers can read our analysis of Sprint Nextel in today's issue.
Online booking agent Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN - News) shares soared 22.2% after the company said its net income more than doubled from year-ago levels. For its second quarter, it posted net income of $34.6 million, or 79 cents a share, up from $12.5 million, or 28 cents per share, a year ago. Sales climbed 16% to $355.9 million. Excluding one-time items, it earned $1.11 a share. Analysts were looking for 89 cents a share. The company also boosted its third-quarter earnings forecast to a range of $1.21-1.31 a share; analysts were looking for the company to earn $1.07 per share.
Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL - News) shares plunged -11.8% after the retailer and home accessories company missed first-quarter numbers. It reported net income of $88 million, or 82 cents a share, up from $80 million, or 74 cents a share, last year. Sales reached $1.07 billion. Analysts on average were looking for earnings of 85 cents a share. Looking forward, the company cut its earnings forecast, which includes charges, to a range of $3.64-3.74 a share, down from $3.70-3.80 a share. The company cited a higher tax rate of 39% compared to 38%.

By the BullMarket.com Staff

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Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) Revenue Plummets

Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. reported a 21 percent decline in preliminary homebuilding revenues for the third quarter and said the housing market is so volatile, it won't give earnings guidance.
The sales nonetheless beat analysts expectations and the stock rose $1.16, or 5 percent, to $24.11.
Robert Toll, the homebuilder's usually ebullient and candid chief executive, remains cautious. Nearly two years into the housing slump, which started with defaults by subprime borrowers, most markets remain weak, he said in a statement.
"With the uncertainties roiling the mortgage markets right now, the pace of home sales could slow further until the credit markets settle down," he said.
Analysts said Toll Brothers, which has a mortgage-lending business, isn't as directly affected by subprime borrower problems, but it does have greater exposure to buyers with jumbo loans and those stretching for loans larger than their incomes justify.
Toll, the nation's largest building of luxury homes, expects to report third-quarter homebuilding revenue of $1.21 billion for the quarter, down from $1.5 billion for the same quarter last year, when it releases earnings on Aug. 22.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average were expecting revenue of $1.08 billion.

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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Jim Cramer's Mad Money Stock Recap July 30th

Doomsday Scenario: MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC - News), DR Horton (NYSE: DHI - News), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM - News) and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL - News)
Cramer created a doomsday scenario which probably will not happen, since the bank crisis in 1990 was "ten times worse" than the problems of today. However, he would avoid any companies which deal with borrowing and lending money, particularly housing: DHI, PHM and TOL. The only housing stock that isn't hopeless now is MDC, but Cramer would still not buy. He would also avoid financials amid bearish fears that loans will not be repaid and yields will shrink; "You can't own anything that even walks by a mortgage," Cramer warned. He would not touch companies which need financing for deals. However, Cramer added; "the worst-case scenario will be derailed," and the doom and gloom will not really materialize
If Ben will Budge: Centex (NYSE: CTX - News), Lennar (NYSE: LEN - News), Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC - News), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - News), Citigroup (NYSE: C - News)
Cramer discussed two scenarios which could reverse doomsday: overseas buyers and an interest rate cut. He is confident that if the Federal Reserve reduces rates by only one percent, housing will make a comeback (especially DHI, PHM, CTX, LEN), financials GS and C will recover and the Dow will jump to 15.
Playing it Safe: Celgene (NasdaqGS: CELG - News), Kellogg (NYSE: K - News), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB - News), Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS - News), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB - News), Amazon.com (NasdaqGS: AMZN - News), Google (NasdaqGS: GOOG - News), Apple (Other OTC: APPL.PK - News) and Research in Motion (NasdaqGS: RIMM - News)
Even if the Fed doesn't budge rates, investors can still create a safe portfolio consisting of CELG, K, SLB, MHS and KMB. He also directed viewers to his six wild bull markets: oil and oil services, agriculture, machinery, aerospace, infrastructure and minerals, and his four horse men of tech: AMZN, GOOG, APPL and RIMM.
Mad Mail: Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM - News), Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD - News), ValueClick Inc. (VLCK)
Cramer urged a mailer not to sell BAM, because it is an international company, unaffected by subprime woes, and is similar to Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway; "If you sold Warren Buffet because of a housing problem, forget it!" To a mailer concerned about RAD, Cramer said, "The integration is going very well. I'm holding your hand on RAD, and begging you not to sell it." Concerning VLCK's bad quarter, he commented, "I don't have my arms around it yet. To me, the stock looks like it's going to see $18, before you see a bottom."
Published By SeekingAlpha

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