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Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Jim Cramer's Mad Money Lightning Round Mar. 12

Bullish calls:
Denny's (NasdaqCM: DENN): 'I want to be candid. They did not have a good month. I am sticking by them because, what I liked them for is the restructuring that's fixing their balance sheet ... it's part of my little under-$10 package that I think is ramping, and that I think goes still higher. DENN is fine with me. I want to hold it.'Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI - News)Dynegy (NYSE: DYN - News)Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO - News): 'This company accomplished something that no other company could do in the western hemisphere... It literally merged with its #2 competitor ... and it has created a mineral powerhouse ... I think it's got $45 written on it. I have liked this company for 10 points. I bet you I like it for another 15! But, I've got to tell you - let's understand - it's had a big run. It is up 68% year over year. It goes to $40, and goes to $45. It probably pulls back a little, and ultimately goes to $50.'NYSE Group (NYSE: NYX - News): 'I think this is the most undervalued stock on the New York Stock Exchange - how ironic... I just bought some again for my charitable trust last week, and I am anxious to pull the trigger again, because I just think it is so darn undervalued versus when that Euronext deal closes. This one is a keeper.'Yahoo! (NasdaqGS: YHOO): ' ... there was an article in the Wall Street Journal that really said that the Yahoo AT&T relationship is ka-put, that it's just a trainwreck ... Now, over the weekend, YHOO and AT&T put out a series of releases that basically said that the Journal was dead wrong. Maybe it's something in between, but the people who tossed this stock out on Friday overreacted to what I think may have been a lot wrong in that article. I'm staying with YHOO.'eBay (NasdaqGS: EBAY)Big Lots (NYSE: BIG - News): ' ... As soon as I saw the Dollar General buyout, I said that someone is going to bid for this BIG, so I hit it up. Sure enough, 52-week high but, you know what? It probably has a little bit more to go. Now, let me caution... If I owned it, it's up 120% year-over-year, and that means bulls make money, bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered. So, if you owned it for the last year....'BEA Systems (NasdaqGS: BEAS): 'I recommended it at $12. Right now, I'm giving myself 30 lashes... I am disappointed in how this company reported. I still believe that Oracle could take them out ... I want to stick with it for now.'
Neutral calls:
Ford (NYSE: F - News): 'I don't mind the company, but the stock is wrong ... I think that Ford will be successful in its turnaround, but I like to play it with the right piece of paper - the convertible bond.'
Bearish calls:
USG (NYSE: USG - News): 'USG is a really interesting situation, because it never seems to ever go right where Warren Buffet says that he would buy the rest of it, which is mid-40s... Now, USG in the end, is deeply levered to the housing market, and you know that I am a bear on housing.'Heelys (HYLS): 'I think that HLYS is over-valued ... I went recently to a couple of sporting goods stores. They're stocked to the gills with Heely's. I don't like to see that. Sell, sell, sell!'News Corp. (NYSE: NWS - News): 'We're a dollar away from register ringing on NWS. It doesn't mean I dislike it. It does mean it's had a really big run.'Quiksilver (NYSE: ZQK - News): 'Awful. Awful. I've got to tell you. This is one of the worst quarters I have seen from any apparel company, and they're blaming the warm weather ... I hate those kind of excuses. In other words, what I'm saying is, it's probably too late to sell right now but, if that stock rallies, sell, sell, sell!'
Published By SeekingAlpha

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Monday, January 29, 2007

Outlook for the Week

It’s going to be a second week of heavy and influential corporate reporting for earnings hounds.
Reports from the likes of Boeing (BA), US Steel (X), Verizon (VZ), Exxon (XOM) and Comcast (CMCSA) will be in the spotlight and could impact the broader market. So far, the damage inflicted due to sub par results or just matching estimates has been minimal. However, sentiment did take a turn for the worse on both Thursday and Friday. Without corrective action, the thought is that similar results will beget further selling pressure as the idea of multiple contraction comes into play.Economic watchdogs are going to busy as well, beginning with a slug of reports on Wednesday. On that day, the FOMC meeting will take center stage, but other data could prove to be more important. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%. However, price pressures and slightly better growth for the economy has sparked talk of potential increases. That said, the policy statement and any wording that might hint at the Fed’s intentions on the future path of rates will be important. For many investors, with earnings growth accepted as slowing down, without a rate cut provision sometime later this year, the view is that 2007 will be a bumpy one.Other economic data coming both before and after the FOMC statement could ultimately ease or inflate Fed policy and viewed as taking top billing for the week. The Q4 GDP out Wednesday morning is one that investors should be on the lookout for. The Street is looking for 3.0% annual growth, which has been quickly adjusted upwards since last month. Sinking gas prices, warmer temperatures in the northeast and a decent holiday shopping season are seen as being key catalysts for the bump up by analysts. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index is expected to show an increase of 2.2%. And on Friday, the jobs report will be dissected for any clues over a firm labor market which might lean the Fed towards a tighter monetary policy.
Monday
Economic: NAEarnings: Mattel (MAT), Phelps Dodge (PD), USG Corp (USG), Verizon (VZ), Schering (SGP), Atheros (ATHR), Gol Air (GOL), Zimmer (ZMH)
Tuesday
Economic: Consumer Confidence (109.5)Earnings: 3M (MMM), Black & Decker (BDK), Illinois Tool (ITW), JetBlue (JBLU), Merck (MRK), UPS (UPS), Cymer (CYMI), Flextronics (FLEX), SanDisk (SNDK), US Steel (X), Websense (WBSN)
Wednesday
Economic: GDP Advance (3.0%), Chain Deflator (1.7%), Employment Cost Index (1.0%), Chicago PMI (52), Construction Spending (0.0%), Weekly Crude, FOMC Policy (5.25%)Earnings: Altria (MO), Boeing (BA), Kodak (EK), CBOT (BOT), Hilton (HLT), OptionsXpress (OXPS), NYMEX (NMX), Eagle Matls (EXP), Gilead (GILD), Google (GOOG), Armor Hldg (AH), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Starbucks (SBUX), Sunoco (SUN), Pulte (PHM)
Thursday
Economic: Inc & Spend (.5%, .7%), Weekly Claims (318K), ISM Index (51.5), Auto / Truck Sales (5.4M, 7.4M)Earnings: Archer Dan (ADM), Comcast (CMCSA), CVS (CVS), Exxon (XOM), Celgene (CELG), Monster (MNST), Under Armour (UA), Valero (VLO), Amazon (AMZN), Dolby (DLB), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Rackable Systems (RACK), Silicon Motion (SIMO), Vertex (VRTX)Friday Economic: Nonfarm Pay (150K), Unemployment (4.5%), Hourly Earnings (.3%), Factory Orders (1.5%), Michigan (97.8) Earnings: Arch Coal (ACI), Chevron (CVX), NYSE Group (NYX), Oshkosh (OSK), Ventana Med (VMSI), Wendy’s (WEN)

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Biggest Decliners Monday

Deutsche Telekom Ag (NYSE:DT - News) cut its profit forecast for 2007, citing fierce competition and an erosion in its U.S. revenue due to recent weakness in the dollar.
Giga-Tronics (NasdaqCM:GIGA - News) shares dropped after the company reported a profit of $58,000, or a penny per share, for the third quarter on sales of $5.6 million. Orders booked for the quarter fell to $3.7 million in the latest period from $4 million last year, while backlog as of Dec. 30 declined to $9.9 million from $12.9 million last year.
Origin Agritech Ltd. (NasdaqGM:SEED - News) shares tumbled after the China-based hybrid crop seed supplier said it expects revenue of between $80 million and $90 million for its fiscal year ending Sept. 30.
Quality Distribution Inc. (NasdaqGM:QLTY - News) lowered its outlook for the fourth quarter and 2006 primarily due to softer-than-anticipated seasonal demand and an unexpected charge for costs associated with legacy environmental remediation projects. The transportation company said it now sees earnings per share of 3 cents to 7 cents for the fourth quarter, compared with its prior view of 17 cents to 19 cents. For 2006, the company now sees earnings per share of 59 to 63 cents, compared with its prior view of 74 to 76 cents.
Radware Ltd. (NasdaqGS:RDWR - News) shares fell after the Israel-based networking services provider reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $110,000, or a penny a share, down from $2.35 million, or 12 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding stock-based compensation, profit came in at 16 cents a share compared with 47 cents a share last year. Revenue rose to $21.09 million from $21.04 million.
Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE:SNY - News) was in focus following a report that the company could merge with Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY - News). Lettre de l'Expansion, a weekly French newsletter, said a pre-merger memorandum has even been signed last week, La Lettre de l'Expansion also reported, adding the merger could be finalized by September this year. Both Sanofi-Aventis and Bristol-Myers declined to comment on the report.
Schering-Plough Corp. (NYSE:SGP - News) said fourth-quarter net income for the three months ended Dec. 31 rose to $182 million, or 12 cents a share, from $104 million, or 7 cents a share in the year-ago period. The latest period includes charges of 5 cents a share. Sales rose 14% to $2.7 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast earnings of 17 cents a share and revenue of $2.5 billion, on average.
Sysco Corp. (NYSE:SYY - News) said its second-quarter net income rose 16% to $236.7 million, or 38 cents a share, from $204.2 million, or 33 cents a share, a year earlier, boosted by business reviews and marketing efforts. The Houston food-service marketing and distribution company said Monday that sales for the quarter ended Dec. 30, rose 7.5% to $8.57 billion from $7.97 billion a year earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, had expected earnings of 38 cents a share on revenue of $8.6 billion.
USG Corp. (NYSE:USG - News) swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $100 million, or $1.11 a share, from a year-ago loss of $1.78 billion, or $30.92 a share, as the year-ago period was hurt by an asbestos claims provision of $3.1 billion. In the latest period, the company had 90.1 million shares outstanding while in the year-ago period it had 57.6 million shares outstanding. The Chicago-based building-products company said sales fell 3.1% to $1.29 billion from $1.34 billion in the year-ago period. The company expects lower wallboard volumes and lower average prices in 2007 which will cause profit to decline "significantly" from the levels of recent years.
Published By MarketWatch

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Saturday, January 27, 2007

Hot Stocks to Watch Monday

Here are 7 stocks for traders for Monday from TradingMarkets.com:
Cummins (NYSE:CMI - News) announces earnings on Monday morning before the open; watch for $3.83 EPS. CMI's PowerRating is 5.
Gentex (NasdaqGS:GNTX - News) reports quarterly earnings Monday morning, with analysts looking for $0.18 EPS. GNTX's PowerRating is 5.
When Mattel (NYSE:MAT - News) announces earnings on Monday before the bell, look for $0.66 EPS. MAT's PowerRating is 5.
Analysts are watching for Tesoro Petroleum (NYSE:TSO - News) to report $1.79 EPS on Monday morning. TSO's PowerRating is 5.
Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN - News) should report $0.06 EPS on Monday morning before the market opens. TSN's PowerRating is 5.
Before trading starts on Monday morning, watch for USG Corp. (NYSE:USG - News) to report $1.31 EPS. USG's PowerRating is 4.
Verizon (NYSE:VZ - News) looks set to report $0.61 EPS on Monday morning. VZ's PowerRating is 5.
PowerRatings are courtesy of PowerRatings.net

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Thursday, January 25, 2007

Jim Cramer's Mad Money Lightning Round Jan. 24

Bullish calls:
Boeing (BA): ' ... it's two thumbs up, way up. That Wachovia guy who downgraded BA - he is going to be so massively wrong, it is frightening... 'Transocean (RIG): ' We like RIG.'Halliburton (HAL): ' ... yes, I'll stick my neck out once again, that HAL will be good.'NYSE (NYX): 'There's a story out there ... It says that there's going to be a massive lockup expiration, where everybody can sell 20 million shares. All the bears are keying on that ... my canvas of the stock tells me that none of the big holders is going to sell that stock. That's why NYX - which is my growth stock of the year - is headed to nothing short of $200!'Hain Celestial (HAIN): 'I would recommend HAIN as best of breed.'Level 3 Communications (LVLT): 'I say you should not be worried. This stock has had a miraculous run. But, it just again cleaned up its balance sheet even more by offering stock. This is one of my growth stocks that are speculative for the year. I reiterate my buy and, if it ever goes below $6, obviously you back up the truck!'Schering-Plough (SGP): 'I would vastly prefer SGP or JNJ [to PFE].'Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)Amgen (AMGN): 'I like AMGN and I like DNA for a little bit of growth.'Genentech (DNA)American Ecology (ECOL): ' ... look at ECOL.'Unilever (UN): 'I've been watching this stock creep up, and I keep saying to myself, 'Why didn't I recommend it? I knew that a turnaround was in place . I have missed UN. My bad. Is it too late to get in? No. Buy, buy, buy!'Diageo (DEO)Rackable Systems (RACK): 'I think it's way overdone to the downside ... I think you wait until the summer, you'll catch a bounce ... you stick with RACK. I don't want to go away from it.'eBay (EBAY)USG (USG): 'The only in-housing play that I've been recommending consistently is USG... I came back and said that stock is going higher. Swap out of yours and go into USG!'
Bearish calls:
Valero Energy (VLO): ' ... don't think VLO's going to do much. It's up 3 bucks, down 3 bucks... I'd like you to take the trade off though. I just don't think that, with oil and gas this low, that you really want to trifle with any of these things to buy on the way down, so let's ix-nay that trade when it comes in a little, and let's play on the long side.'SunOpta (STKL): 'We're swapping out of STKL and we're going into HAIN... 'Georgia Gulf (GGC): 'The only in-housing play that I've been recommending consistently is... Swap out of yours and go into USG!'Pfizer (PFE): 'You've got what I call dead money ... Keep selling PFE. It's just like owning a bond, but a little less exciting.'Republic Services (RSG): ' ... when we buy a company at twice its growth rate, in terms of a P/E, it's been catastrophic for us. So I want you to sell that one - sell, sell, sell.'
Published by SeekingAlpha

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Monday, January 15, 2007

The Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio

New Investments and AdditionsAs of Sept. 30--Berkshire's most recent filings with the SEC--the conglomerate didn't add any new positions compared to its June 30 report, but it did receive shares in Western Union (NYSE:WU - News) which was spun off from longtime holding First Data (NYSE:FDC - News). Berkshire also increased its stake in five of its existing holdings: Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM - News), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW - News), Nike (NYSE:NKE - News), and USG (NYSE:USG - News).
I think the most intriguing of these is Western Union, which dominates the lucrative money transfer market. My colleague Mark Weber has long held Western Union to be the most undervalued part of First Data's overall business, and believes that the spin-off now allows potential investors to participate in the economics of this outstanding franchise at a very attractive price. In fact, Weber estimates Western Union's fair value to be $32 per share, about a 45% upside to the firm's current share price.
It should also be noted that Berkshire boosted its stake in USG, a manufacturer of gypsum wallboards, which emerged from asbestos related bankruptcy last June. Berkshire has owned USG since 2001, and more recently backed a rights offering from the company in mid-2006. Given Buffett's experience with asbestos liabilities via Berkshire's insurance operations, as well as his acquisition of the formerly asbestos burdened John Mansfield, I'm cautiously optimistic about Berkshire's stake in USG as well. I will note, however, that as of this writing Morningstar does not have a rating on USG shares.
Eliminations and ReductionsEven though Berkshire is typically a buy and hold investor--especially when it comes to making wholly owned acquisitions--it does from time to time trim or outright sell some of the positions in its equity portfolio. In the quarter that ended Sept. 30, Berkshire modestly trimmed its position in beer maker Anheuser Busch (NYSE:BUD - News), sold some of its holdings in tax adviser H&R Block (NYSE:HRB - News), continued to divest its stake in financial services distributor Ameriprise Financial (NYSE:AMP - News), and appears to have sold a significant chunk of its shares in mass-market retailer Target (NYSE:TGT - News).
The apparent decision to jettison shares in Target is surprising, given that Berkshire had recently released that it built a position of 5.5 million shares of the retailer through June 30. Berkshire's Sept. 30 filing indicates that the conglomerate now only owns 745,000 shares. An analysis of Target's stock price history indicates that if Berkshire did in fact reduce its position in Target, it would likely have done so at a price at least equal to, if not below, the price at which it had accumulated the position. Given that Berkshire still has sizable positions in relatively similar retailers like Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD - News), it seems odd that Berkshire would do an about face on Target. It should be noted, though, that the SEC allows Berkshire to delay filing its holdings on some stocks while it is still accumulating a position. For example, this is how the conglomerate has disclosed its growing stake in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - News). Thus, it's still possible that Berkshire has maintained a position in Target, with the disclosure being somewhat delayed. Giving further credence to this hypothesis is my colleague Joseph Beaulieu's $65 per share fair value estimate for the retailer, which indicates that at Morningstar we still believe that the shares are moderately undervalued.
Less surprising than Target, however, was the continued liquidation of the Ameriprise shares, which Berkshire had acquired when longtime holding American Express (NYSE:AXP - News) spun off the unit in mid-2005. My colleague Dafina Dunmore believes that it will be difficult for Ameriprise to generate above-average returns on capital due to a difficult regulatory climate and intensifying competition. Given this outlook and the fact that Dunmore believes the shares are fairly valued right now, I suspect that Berkshire will continue to divest itself of Ameriprise over time.
5-Star StocksAs of Jan. 8, only four of Berkshire's stocks boasted 5-star Morningstar Ratings for stocks, which itself is an interesting commentary on overall stock market valuations. That said, our analysts still believe that the shares of United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS - News), Wal-Mart, the aforementioned Western Union, and White Mountains Insurance (NYSE:WTM - News) are currently offering investors the potential to earn attractive long-term returns.
More interesting still is that even with the recent runup in the share price, Berkshire's stock still has a 5-star rating, with a fair value estimate of $4,550 per class B share. In my view, an investment in Berkshire would have a dual benefit--it gives investors exposure to all of the companies in Berkshire's equity portfolio as well as to the conglomerate's substantial private holdings.
The Complete HoldingsHere's the complete list of Berkshire's equity portfolio, ranked from the largest position to the smallest. I continue to note that despite having 39 names in the portfolio, Berkshire's holdings are very concentrated. The top 10 stocks account for more than 80% of the portfolio: American Express, Anheuser-Busch, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO - News), Conoco Phillips (NYSE:COP - News), Johnson & Johnson, Moody's (NYSE:MCO - News), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG - News), Washington Post (NYSE:WPO - News), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC - News), and Wesco (AMEX:WSC - News).
Source: Justin Fuller, CFA

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Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Jim Cramer's Mad Money Lightning Round- Jan. 8th

Bullish calls:
Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE: TMO - News): ' May I suggest - if you're going to do medical diagnostics ... it's TMO.'Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL - News): ' ... I think it's got one down and five up. They make the controllers for disk drives, among other things, and also the PS2 ... I think it's six months before it explodes, but it will explode to the upside!'Companhia Vale do Rio (NYSE: RIO - News): 'The only one that I will still sanction, was my last one that I recommended, which was RIO.Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ - News): 'The only one [personal computer company] that I've actually been recommending - it's got big revenues this company - is the HPQ.'USG (NYSE: USG - News): 'I think USG is maxed out by Warren Buffet. It's at $52 bucks and, if housing turns, it goes right to $65. And, if housing doesn't turn, no real downside - maybe $49. That means 3 down, and it means 7 up. 7 up wins.'Community Bank System (NYSE: CBU - News): 'This one's very cheap off the book value. Why? Because the book value's actually cash, when it comes to banks. I like it. 3.4% yield. I'm not concerned about the inverted yield curve ... You've got a winner.'Daktronics (NASDAQ: DAKT - News): 'They were beat up, and it was a fallacy! ... This was classic profit taking ... I like DAKT very much on this pullback, and I want to pull the trigger, and then I want to stay with it.'
Bearish calls:
Mindray Medical International (NYSE: MR - News): 'Oh, there's a man who likes to go to China and look for nothing but problems. We got a lot of companies who do the same thing - in terms of the internet - right here ... TMO's better than MR.'Internap Network Services (NASDAQ: INAP - News): 'It is time to ring the register INAP.'Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG - News)Amphenol (NYSE: APH - News): 'I never find these companies to be anything that special, but they always trade cheap. I have no catalyst to recommend APH, so I'm going to say, 'don't buy, don't buy.'Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP - News): 'The commodity boom is over. NEM - the last of the big gold stocks - is rolling over. I do not want be associated with RTP, or BHP anymore. 'BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP - News)Systemax (NYSE: SYX - News): 'We liked this stock before; it's had a really nice run. I am not going to tell you that it's necessarily cheap ... SYX is kind of one of these [ one sideways thumb].'Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU - News): ' ... coal is plummeting, plummeting. No one wants to own coal. Plus, we have the Democrats ... they are not of, by and for the corporation. They are concerned with the air. You can't make any money off of that game - the air game. Therefore, I think that BTU remains a cheap stock with no catalyst. Not for me.'
Published by SeekingAlpha

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Friday, December 01, 2006

USG Corporation (USG) Rises on Takeover Speculation

Shares of building materials maker USG Corp. (USG.N: Quote, Profile , Research) rose over 9 percent on Thursday on rumors that the company is a takeover target, an analyst said.
"I heard there was a rumor of takeout interest, but I have no reason to believe that it is either credible or not credible," said CRT Capital Group analyst Robert Goodman. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the insurance and investment company run by billionaire Warren Buffett, owned about 19 percent of the company's shares as of September 30. Goodman also said a Bank of America upgrade of homebuilders could be helping the shares as well. The rumors also increased activity in USG's options. "USG calls are active amid leveraged buyout talk," said Frederic Ruffy, analyst at Optionetics, a Redwood City, California-based options education firm. The December and January calls have seen an increase in volume, he noted. Investors often turn to equity calls, which give the right to buy the underlying security at a predetermined price within a specified time period, in anticipation of stock appreciation. The company was not immediately available for comment. Shares of USG rose $4.81, or 9.4 percent, to $56.26 in late afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Source: Reuters.com

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USG Corporation (USG) Rises on Takeover Speculation

Shares of building materials maker USG Corp. (USG.N: Quote, Profile , Research) rose over 9 percent on Thursday on rumors that the company is a takeover target, an analyst said.
"I heard there was a rumor of takeout interest, but I have no reason to believe that it is either credible or not credible," said CRT Capital Group analyst Robert Goodman. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the insurance and investment company run by billionaire Warren Buffett, owned about 19 percent of the company's shares as of September 30. Goodman also said a Bank of America upgrade of homebuilders could be helping the shares as well. The rumors also increased activity in USG's options. "USG calls are active amid leveraged buyout talk," said Frederic Ruffy, analyst at Optionetics, a Redwood City, California-based options education firm. The December and January calls have seen an increase in volume, he noted. Investors often turn to equity calls, which give the right to buy the underlying security at a predetermined price within a specified time period, in anticipation of stock appreciation. The company was not immediately available for comment. Shares of USG rose $4.81, or 9.4 percent, to $56.26 in late afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Source: Reuters.com

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