Jim Cramer Blog

Bullish:

Excel Maritime (EXM): bullish on all dry bulk shipping companies.
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO): Cramer thinks this stock should go higher
Range Resources (RRC): Cramer likes this stock along with the other cheap oil companies
Quicksilver Resources (KWK)
Rosetta Resources (ROSE)
XTO Energy (XTO): his favorite in the sector
Celgene (CELG): one of the best picks he has ever made.

Bearish:

Navteq (NVT): Cramer thinks it's time to ring the register
Garmin (GRMN)
Urban Outfitters (URBN): Cramer's not a fan.
Western Union (WU): This stock doesn't have enough upside.
Nastech (NSTK): Wouldn't recommend buying it until it goes back to $12.
Citigroup (C): Undervalued, but he's not a fan of CEO Chuck Prince.
Sears (SHLD): Cramer isn't urging people to buy

Labels: C, CELG, EXM, GRMN, Jim Cramer, KWK, Lightning Round, Mad Money, NSTK, NVT, RIO, ROSE, RRC, SHLD, URBN, WU, XTO

Credit-card and payment processor First Data Corp. (NYSE:FDC - News) said on Monday it has agreed to be acquired by private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR.UL) for about $29 billion in the second-largest buyout ever. The deal is the latest in a string of high-profile leveraged buyouts of U.S. corporations in an era of easily accessible financing, ranking only behind KKR's and Texas Pacific Group's ongoing takeover of TXU Corp. (NYSE:TXU - News) in terms of size. Under the agreement, First Data shareholders would be paid $34 for each share of the company they own, a 26 percent premium to where the shares closed on March 30. Based on the 775.1 million shares outstanding the company had in February, the deal has an equity value of $26.4 billion. At $34 per share, KKR is paying 27 times estimated 2007 earnings of $1.24 per share. Based on the $26.4 billion equity value, KKR is paying nearly 14 times estimated 2007 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $1.9 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. First Data said it was a great time to maximize the company's value and deliver cash to shareholders.
The agreement was unanimously approved by the First Data board of directors based upon the recommendation of the strategic review committee made up of three independent directors.
The deal is expected to close by the end of the third quarter, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
First Data intends to tender for all of its outstanding bonds in conjunction with closing.
The move comes about six months after First Data spun off Western Union (NYSE:WU - News), the payment processing company that built the first transcontinental telegraph line. With private equity firms competing hard for large buyout targets, the First Data deal makes KKR the firm behind the top three largest leveraged buyouts.
Source: Reuters

Labels: FDC, Hot Stocks, Private Equity, TXU, WU

Transocean (NYSE: RIG - News): ' I am going to reiterate that the driller of the year is RIG. This is it! This is the cheap one, and last week, at the A.G. Edwards' conference, they indicated they favor consolidation... That's how you picked up a quick $5, and we are not done yet.'Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM - News): 'This is a very tough call because, in the end, WM has bigger risk, and bigger reward... 'Bank of America (NYSE: BAC - News): 'BAC is a well-run bank with a good dividend ... best-in-breed is BAC.'Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE: TMO - News): 'TMO is the arms merchant to biotech. I have liked the stock. When they're in there giving each other the business, and they need equipment, they buy TMO, and therefore I am in favor of it.'Western Union (NYSE: WU - News): 'This company is now on all cylinders. The Mexican business is great.'Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX - News)Best Buy (NYSE: BBY - News): 'I know this stock has been a dog. I mean it's just been awful. I also know that I have liked it throughout this period... I believe that you have to hold onto it, but the payoff may not be immediate. ... Stay long.'Lundin Mining (AMEX: LMC - News): 'LMC is better than your stock. I would rather see you in that stock at $11, $1.50 below its high, I would buy LMC! That's the copper and zinc play and I say back up the truck LMC, after the copper breakout...'BigBand Networks (NasdaqGM: BBND): 'BBND is one of my favorite new IPOs! I say hold onto it. This is one of the best performers already, and I think it's only going to get better!'Cisco (NasdaqGS: CSCO): 'Many people have taken shots at it ... They are all wrong! It's the best networker in the game. I think it has a big upside surprise and, not only do I want to stay with CSCO, I want to pull the trigger right here!'
Bearish calls:
Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX - News): ' I say swap out of HLX, and get into RIG!'Northern Orion Resources (AMEX: NTO - News): 'I think it's interesting ... LMC is better than your stock.'
Published By SeekingAlpha

Labels: BAC, BBY, CSCO, FCX, HLX, Jim Cramer, Lightning Round, LMC, Mad Money, NTO, TMO, WM, WU

Bullish calls:
Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY - News): ' I have walked away from KRY and endorsed AUY.'Hydril (NasdaqGS: HYDL): 'As long as oil is north of $40, you are going to be safe there, because it just doesn't make any sense not to use hydro products. I am buying that stock.'DirecTV (NYSE: DTV - News): 'I happen to like DTV. I happen to like DISH. These are cash machines ... The government approves of the duopoly.'EchoStar Communications (NasdaqGS: DISH): 'I endorse DISH too.'Marvell Technology (NasdaqGS: MRVL): 'There is not a single semiconductor, save MRVL*, which I own for my charitable trust, because I think they've got good iPhone business.'Jones Soda (NasdaqCM: JSDA): 'I bank with JSDA. You know I like JSDA. That's an up stock. I still can't believe Pepsi still hasn't taken a run at them.'State Street (NYSE: STT - News): 'This is one those banks that does processing, therefore it gets a higher valuation. 52-week high today, and I'm not backing away. It goes still higher!'British Airways (NYSE: BAB - News)
Bearish calls:
Crystallex (AMEX: KRY - News): ' ... we do not invest with Chavez. He has proven to be a recalcitrant, pseudo-communist! We are not banking with him anymore.'TiVo (NasdaqGM: TIVO): ' I know TIVO's going to be in Comcast, and all that other nonsense... The bottom line is TIVO is 'don't buy, don't buy.' Having recommended a sale outright higher, I don't want to push my luck, but I don't want you in the stock. 'Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (NYSE: ASX - News): 'I don't like that. That's another also-ran semi play ... I do not want to own semis here.'Select Comfort (NasdaqGS: SCSS): 'I have stayed away from the bed business ... I am putting a pox on all beds! Stay away! Sell, sell, sell! 'Sealy (NYSE: ZZ - News): 'I think ZZ was a mistake by me. 'Tempur Pedic (NYSE: TPX - News)CenterPoint Energy (NYSE: CNP - News): 'CNP is just okay. It's a 3.5% yield ... But basically, I like the utilities here, so I can't dis' it. Let me give it a 'don't buy, don't buy.'Nuance Communications (NasdaqGS: NUAN): 'No! No, no! Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell! ... I say no to speech recognition.'Western Union (NYSE: WU - News): 'I am still in 'don't buy, don't buy,' because I worry about the immigrants being told they can't do what they want, so they may be afraid to go to Western Union.'
Published by SeekingAlpha

Labels: ASX, AUY, BAB, CNP, DISH, DTV, HYDL, Jim Cramer, JSDA, KRY, Lightning Round, Mad Money, MRVL, NUAN, SCSS, STT, Tivo, TPX, WU, ZZ

Bullish calls:
Yamana Gold (AUY): ' I have walked away from KRY and endorsed AUY.'Hydril (HYDL): 'As long as oil is north of $40, you are going to be safe there, because it just doesn't make any sense not to use hydro products. I am buying that stock.'DirecTV (DTV): 'I happen to like DTV. I happen to like DISH. These are cash machines ... The government approves of the duopoly.'EchoStar Communications (DISH): 'I endorse DISH too.'Marvell Technology (MRVL): 'There is not a single semiconductor, save MRVL*, which I own for my charitable trust, because I think they've got good iPhone business.'Jones Soda (JSDA): 'I bank with JSDA. You know I like JSDA. That's an up stock. I still can't believe Pepsi still hasn't taken a run at them.'State Street (STT): 'This is one those banks that does processing, therefore it gets a higher valuation. 52-week high today, and I'm not backing away. It goes still higher!'British Airways (BAB)
Bearish calls:
Crystallex (KRY): ' ... we do not invest with Chavez. He has proven to be a recalcitrant, pseudo-communist! We are not banking with him anymore.'TiVo (TIVO): ' I know TIVO's going to be in Comcast, and all that other nonsense... The bottom line is TIVO is 'don't buy, don't buy.' Having recommended a sale outright higher, I don't want to push my luck, but I don't want you in the stock. 'Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASX): 'I don't like that. That's another also-ran semi play ... I do not want to own semis here.'Select Comfort (SCSS): 'I have stayed away from the bed business ... I am putting a pox on all beds! Stay away! Sell, sell, sell! 'Sealy (ZZ): 'I think ZZ was a mistake by me. 'Tempur Pedic (TPX)CenterPoint Energy (CNP): 'CNP is just okay. It's a 3.5% yield ... But basically, I like the utilities here, so I can't dis' it. Let me give it a 'don't buy, don't buy.'Nuance Communications (NUAN): 'No! No, no! Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell! ... I say no to speech recognition.'Western Union (WU): 'I am still in 'don't buy, don't buy,' because I worry about the immigrants being told they can't do what they want, so they may be afraid to go to Western Union.'
Published By SeekingAlpha

Labels: ASX, AUY, BAB, CNP, DISH, DTV, HYDL, Jim Cramer, JSDA, KRY, Lightning Round, Mad Money, NUAN, SCSS, STT, Tivo, TPX, WU, ZZ

New Investments and AdditionsAs of Sept. 30--Berkshire's most recent filings with the SEC--the conglomerate didn't add any new positions compared to its June 30 report, but it did receive shares in Western Union (NYSE:WU - News) which was spun off from longtime holding First Data (NYSE:FDC - News). Berkshire also increased its stake in five of its existing holdings: Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM - News), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW - News), Nike (NYSE:NKE - News), and USG (NYSE:USG - News).
I think the most intriguing of these is Western Union, which dominates the lucrative money transfer market. My colleague Mark Weber has long held Western Union to be the most undervalued part of First Data's overall business, and believes that the spin-off now allows potential investors to participate in the economics of this outstanding franchise at a very attractive price. In fact, Weber estimates Western Union's fair value to be $32 per share, about a 45% upside to the firm's current share price.
It should also be noted that Berkshire boosted its stake in USG, a manufacturer of gypsum wallboards, which emerged from asbestos related bankruptcy last June. Berkshire has owned USG since 2001, and more recently backed a rights offering from the company in mid-2006. Given Buffett's experience with asbestos liabilities via Berkshire's insurance operations, as well as his acquisition of the formerly asbestos burdened John Mansfield, I'm cautiously optimistic about Berkshire's stake in USG as well. I will note, however, that as of this writing Morningstar does not have a rating on USG shares.
Eliminations and ReductionsEven though Berkshire is typically a buy and hold investor--especially when it comes to making wholly owned acquisitions--it does from time to time trim or outright sell some of the positions in its equity portfolio. In the quarter that ended Sept. 30, Berkshire modestly trimmed its position in beer maker Anheuser Busch (NYSE:BUD - News), sold some of its holdings in tax adviser H&R Block (NYSE:HRB - News), continued to divest its stake in financial services distributor Ameriprise Financial (NYSE:AMP - News), and appears to have sold a significant chunk of its shares in mass-market retailer Target (NYSE:TGT - News).
The apparent decision to jettison shares in Target is surprising, given that Berkshire had recently released that it built a position of 5.5 million shares of the retailer through June 30. Berkshire's Sept. 30 filing indicates that the conglomerate now only owns 745,000 shares. An analysis of Target's stock price history indicates that if Berkshire did in fact reduce its position in Target, it would likely have done so at a price at least equal to, if not below, the price at which it had accumulated the position. Given that Berkshire still has sizable positions in relatively similar retailers like Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD - News), it seems odd that Berkshire would do an about face on Target. It should be noted, though, that the SEC allows Berkshire to delay filing its holdings on some stocks while it is still accumulating a position. For example, this is how the conglomerate has disclosed its growing stake in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - News). Thus, it's still possible that Berkshire has maintained a position in Target, with the disclosure being somewhat delayed. Giving further credence to this hypothesis is my colleague Joseph Beaulieu's $65 per share fair value estimate for the retailer, which indicates that at Morningstar we still believe that the shares are moderately undervalued.
Less surprising than Target, however, was the continued liquidation of the Ameriprise shares, which Berkshire had acquired when longtime holding American Express (NYSE:AXP - News) spun off the unit in mid-2005. My colleague Dafina Dunmore believes that it will be difficult for Ameriprise to generate above-average returns on capital due to a difficult regulatory climate and intensifying competition. Given this outlook and the fact that Dunmore believes the shares are fairly valued right now, I suspect that Berkshire will continue to divest itself of Ameriprise over time.
5-Star StocksAs of Jan. 8, only four of Berkshire's stocks boasted 5-star Morningstar Ratings for stocks, which itself is an interesting commentary on overall stock market valuations. That said, our analysts still believe that the shares of United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS - News), Wal-Mart, the aforementioned Western Union, and White Mountains Insurance (NYSE:WTM - News) are currently offering investors the potential to earn attractive long-term returns.
More interesting still is that even with the recent runup in the share price, Berkshire's stock still has a 5-star rating, with a fair value estimate of $4,550 per class B share. In my view, an investment in Berkshire would have a dual benefit--it gives investors exposure to all of the companies in Berkshire's equity portfolio as well as to the conglomerate's substantial private holdings.
The Complete HoldingsHere's the complete list of Berkshire's equity portfolio, ranked from the largest position to the smallest. I continue to note that despite having 39 names in the portfolio, Berkshire's holdings are very concentrated. The top 10 stocks account for more than 80% of the portfolio: American Express, Anheuser-Busch, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO - News), Conoco Phillips (NYSE:COP - News), Johnson & Johnson, Moody's (NYSE:MCO - News), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG - News), Washington Post (NYSE:WPO - News), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC - News), and Wesco (AMEX:WSC - News).
Source: Justin Fuller, CFA

Labels: AMP, AXP, BUD, COP, FDC, HD, HRB, IRM, JNJ, KO, LOW, NKE, PG, TGT, UPS, USG, WMT, WTM, WU