Jim Cramer Blog

Victors: Apple (AAPL) crushed Wall Street estimates by reporting a 67% jump in profits. Najarian says it's an amazing number and everything is working. He owns the stock and continues to stay long. American Express (AXP) beats expectations and trades higher after hours. Merck (MRK) reports a 62% jump in third quarter profits and the stock trades higher. Macke continues to be bullish on Merck. Adami suggests looking at Pfizer (PFE) on a valuation basis.Homebuilding stocks were strong on Monday with the Homebuilders ETF (XHB) trading up 3%. Finerman mentions that a private equity group Hellman & Friedman bought Goodman Global (GGL) for $2.65 billion and tells viewers to trade off that news by going long MDC Holdings (MDC).
Victims: Texas Instruments (TXN) shares dip on the chip maker's outlook that was below Wall Street estimates. Najarian hinted that Texas Instruments isn't managed as well as Apple (AAPL) and he would rather own Apple. Adami counsels investors to buy Intel (INTC) off the TXN numbers. Alos, crude oil and gold both fell 1% Monday as the dollar gains strength.
Merrill Lynch (MER) is set to report earnings on Wednesday. CNBC's Charlie Gasparino discussed his take on Merrill. Insiders at Merrill tell him that some are calling for CEO Stan O'Neal's head. Even outside shareholders want him out. Macke tells investors not to bother buying this stock. Gasparino is now giving O'Neal 8-to-1 odds of being removed as CEO.
SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) co-founder, president and COO Sanjay Mehrotra joined the shpw to discuss his firm's prospects. Mehrotra says demand remains strong especially for the mobile phone segment of the business. He sees continued growth for SanDisk in 2008 and higher profitability.
OIL: Higher oil prices may actually cause BP (BP) and Exxon (XOM) to report a decline in profit for the first time in 5 years. Finerman wants to short tanker stocks like Teekay (TK) because of declining tanker rates.
Retail: Amazon.com (AMZN) is set to report earnings Tuesday after the bell. Macke loves the stock and thinks they will blow out the earnings. Finerman prefers Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT) and she hopes they trade lower so that she can buy more for her hedge fund. Adami is partial to United Parcel Services (UPS)
Pops & Drops
Pops- Altria (MO) trades up 1% after a UBS upgrade. Finerman is bullish on Altria.
Kimberly Clark (KMB) trades up 5% after posting strong profit numbers.
ExpressJet Holdings (XJT) trades up 16% after the firm announced possible plans of going private.
Sears Holdings (SHLD) popped 4% after a positive mention in Barron's. Finerman would rather be long Target (TGT).
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) traded up 8% after reporting strong profits. The stock is working for Macke.
Radiation Therapy Service exploded higher by 44% after Vestar Capital Partners took the company private.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) traded up 5% after the firm raised third-quarter estimates and Adami would buy it.
Final Trade
Macke counsels investors to buy Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG).
Adami likes Intel (INTC).
Finerman recommends Covidien (COV).
Najarian offers up Yahoo! (YHOO) for a play on Alibaba.

Labels: AAPL, AMZN, AXP, CNBC, Fast Money, Fast Money Recap, GGL, INTC, MDC, MER, MRK, pfe, SNDK, TXN, XHB, XOM

Here are 7 options to watch for today. This list comes directly from the TradingMarkets Options Indicators page. The list is created using OptionVue options analysis software.
Most Underpriced Calls: These are the most under priced calls of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Explosion List finds groups of calls for individual equities that are under priced, this list finds the most under priced individual calls. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely under priced.
Bear Stearns Companies Aug 155 Calls (NYSE:BSC - News). BSC's PowerRating is 5.
Most Underpriced Puts: These are the most under priced puts of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Explosion List finds groups of puts for individual equities that are under priced, this list finds the most under priced individual puts. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely under priced.
Google Inc. Sep 490 Puts (NasdaqGS:GOOG - News). GOOG's PowerRating is 6.
Most Overpriced Calls: These are the most overpriced calls of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Implosion List finds groups of calls for individual equities that are overpriced, this list finds the most overpriced individual calls. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely overpriced.
Baidu.com Aug 230 Calls (NasdaqGS:BIDU - News). BIDU's PowerRating is 8.
Most Overpriced Puts: These are the most overpriced puts of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Implosion List finds groups of puts for individual equities that are overpriced, this list finds the most overpriced individual puts. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely overpriced.
Southern Copper Corp. Sep 100 Puts (NYSE:PCU - News). PCU' PowerRating is 3.
Stocks with Abnormal Call Volume: These are stocks which showed unusual call option volume not easily explained by arbitrage operations. The appearance of a stock on the Call Volume Alerts list suggests a possible takeover, extraordinarily good earnings report, or other news which may favorably affect the stock.
Seaspan Corp. (NYSE:SSW - News). SSW's PowerRating is 4.
Stocks with Abnormal Put Volume: These are stocks which showed unusual put option volume not easily explained by arbitrage operations. The appearance of a stock on the Put Volume Alerts list suggests an extraordinarily negative earnings report, or other news which may negatively affect the stock.
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (AMEX:XHB - News). XHB's PowerRating is 4.
Abnormal Put/Call $ Volume: These stocks have the highest dollar put volume in relation to their call volume. These high ratios are indicative of extreme bearish sentiment in the underlying stock.
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE - News). PFE's PowerRating is 5.
PowerRatings are courtesy of TradingMarkets.com

Labels: BIDU, BSC, GOOG, PCU, pfe, SSW, stock options, XHB

Summary: Last week, Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL - News) announced a 33% drop in orders and more land writedown trouble, while HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC - News) and New Century Financial (NYSE: NEW - News) announced high subprime loan defaults. Despite higher bond yields and no imminent interest rate cut, homebuilders have been rallying. Cancellations have slowed slightly, but are still 34% higher than 2005, and inventory overhang is large. Good weather may have contributed to December and January's slight pickup, but a cold spell has likely ended that. Aggressive incentives and discounts along with land writedowns are expected to take a big bite out of homebuilders 2007 bottom line, impacting recent stock price gains. Homebuilders' 20 P/E average is also well above the broad market average of 15. So as capital flows in to the SPDR homebuilders ETF (AMEX: XHB - News), Tom McManus of Banc of America councils caution. Michael Benhamou of Louis Capital Markets projects a pullback risk of about 25%. Homebuilders might have touched bottom, and savvy investors may be getting in early, but only [a long] time will tell.
Published by SeekingAlpha

Labels: HBC, NEW, TOL, XHB

With only two days left in Santas officially sanctioned rally, much of that bull has already been put to rest. For the abbreviated and suspect work week, the NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ) and S&P500 ($SPX) saw fit to tack on another .60% thereabouts and onto their existing yearly and not-so-ruff gainers of 10% to 14%.There were no Monday morning marriage agreements this past week, seeing how the home offices were closed for the holiday. However, the market did kick things off on the right foot Tuesday. Handily lower oil prices (USO) on a discounting of idle supply threats from Iran and mild weather on the east coast [down -2.40% on week] helped traders along with profit-engine leadership from the energy sector. The bulls had further help in a no headlines required situation, as an existing and well-positioned technical bounce and seasonal window were gifts left for Wall Streeters still watching the flickering red and green lights. Wednesday offered up some pleasant surprises with light fare M & A stories from Cenveo (CVO) and McClatchy (MNI), continued weakness in crude and the bottom is in cheer on the housing front (XHB). All told, the fodder was sufficient to keep the bulls happy for a second session of upside seasonal gifts. Call it a case of investor indigestion, schnitzeling or perhaps concern over what really matters in the investment decision: Thursday and Friday saw the few remaining investors, pressuring ever-so-slightly, Santas window of opportunity. In the weeks heaviest dose of economic realities, Thursdays better-than-expected economic reports were also apparently seen as the stronger-than-wanted variety. Call it a Catch-22 situation for market bulls intent on the Fed lowering rates in early 2007. That said, surprises pointing to a steadier economy courtesy of the Chicago PMI, existing home sales, weekly claims and a happy consumer resulted in across-the-board spikes on interest rate instruments and a definitive change of tune towards the possibility of the Fed easing its monetary policy. Speaking of investors changing their tune, closing out the week and a day without one iota of economic news, Apple (AAPL) received a tune up of sorts with more than a few folks doing more than just listening in. After two sessions of nefarious stock-option headlines that involved the man behind the music, Steve Jobs & Co. reached an agreement with the Feds. Apple announced that while Mr. Jobs did recommend favorable grants for a few key executives back in 2001, that he didnt personally partake in the inflated gratuities. As such, the company agreed to take an $84 million charge linked to the prior accounting mishap and the SEC, for their part, might have to go search for another high-profile whipping boy.
ON TAP THIS WEEK
The abbreviated work week of just three sessions will be a fairly busy one for economic watchdogs. Manufacturing on the national level courtesy of the ISM index will kick off the New Year for investors. With mixed regional reports of late and the index currently at the contraction/expansion level of 50, a reading removed from that key level will have the capacity to induce further rate debates amongst bulls and bears. The most important report however, or at least heralded, will be Fridays jobs data. Both the speed at which the slowdown is occurring, as well as possible wage-based inflation pressures will be the focus of the release and a Street torn as to what might be better for 2007s market-based Drive for Five.
Wednesday Economic: Construction Spend (-.6%), ISM Index (50), Auto / Truck Sales (5.2M, 7.3M) Earnings: Immucor (BLUD), Sonic (SONC), Merix (MERX)
Thursday Economic: Weekly Claims (318K), Factory Orders (1.4%), ISM Services (57) Earnings: Monsanto (MON), Texas Industries (TXI), Constellation Brands (STZ), Healthways (HWAY), Xyratex (XRTX)FridayEconomic: Nonfarm (110K), Unemployment (4.5%), Hourly Wages (.3%)Earnings: Shaw Group (SGR), Global Payment (GPN)
By Chris Tyler, Optionetics.com

Labels: AAPL, BLUD, CVO, GPN, HWAY, MERX, MNI, MON, SGR, SONC, SPX, STZ, TXI, USO, XHB, XRTX